HMC
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HMC
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HMC exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly in earnings quality, which could suggest potential financial manipulation. The Beneish M-Score of -2.5344 is well below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, yet the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses.
- Earnings Quality Score of 59.4/100 indicates moderate risk, with particularly low revenue quality at 16.8/100.
- The SGI of 1.3610 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
- The DSRI of 0.7230 indicates a healthy inventory management relative to sales, which is a positive sign.
- High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective collection processes.
The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam holding 55.7%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.
Investors should conduct further due diligence on HMC's financial practices and consider monitoring future earnings reports closely, especially focusing on revenue quality metrics.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for HMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate