HDC

• Beneish M-Score -0.5858 (90th Vietnam peer percentile; YoY change +1.63): the M-Score measures a combination of eight ratios that indicate likelihood of earnings manipulation; HDC’s high peer-percentile and a large positive YoY change show its combined signals are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially year-over-year.
• DSRI = 1.5000: the Days’ Sales Receivables Index component of the M-Score measures relative growth in receivables versus sales; a value >1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales which can signal revenue-recognition pressure.
• SGAI = 2.1745: the Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; a value above 1 (and this large) indicates SG&A rose much faster than sales and can be associated with expense-capitalization or managerial smoothing.
• GMI = 1.9084: the Gross Margin Index compares current to prior gross margins; >1 implies gross margin deteriorated year-over-year, which can create incentives to manage earnings upward.
• TATA = 0.2726: Total Accruals to Total Assets is positive and elevated, indicating that accruals (nondiscretionary + discretionary) make a significant portion of reported profit; accruals quality score 17.0/100 corroborates low accruals quality.
• Cash conversion (3-year OCF / net profit) = -1.15 (13th percentile): measures the ability to turn accounting profit into operating cash; this very low/negative figure shows profits have not been translated into cash flow over three years.
• Earnings Quality Score 10.9/100; Receivables quality 0.0/100; Cash conversion 0.0/100; Margin quality 0.0/100: these component scores quantify low overall earnings quality and specific weaknesses in cash conversion, margins and receivables.
• Altman Z-Score = 1.79 (distress zone): the Z-Score combines profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity metrics to assess bankruptcy distance; 1.79 places HDC in the distress range by the Altman model.
• Piotroski F-Score = 3/9: this score of fundamental health (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency) is weak, indicating few improving fundamentals.
• Director-deal registrations (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30): 14 sale registrations (7 registrants; total 1,000,000 shares, with 12 registrations listing no volume) and 8 purchase registrations (4 registrants; 3,300,000 shares). These are registered intentions disclosed to the exchange, not executed trades, but show active insider registration activity.

• Receivables outside the trade cycle = 4.5% of total assets (65th Vietnam percentile): this proportion (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables) is moderate and is not unusually large versus peers, which reduces a concern that out-of-cycle receivables dominate the balance sheet.
• Revenue quality = 44.1/100: while not high, this is materially better than other earnings-quality components and suggests some portion of reported revenue has supporting indicators.
• AQI = 0.9361 and DEPI = 0.9706 (both <1): the Asset Quality Index and Depreciation Index values below 1 indicate the firm did not show the typical signs of increased capitalizing of costs or unusually slow depreciation compared with the prior period (AQI <1 suggests asset write-offs or lower capitalizing; DEPI <1 suggests depreciation rates rose).
• No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive; parent net loss in 0 consecutive years up to FY2025: statutory balance-sheet and profit history items are not triggering basic solvency flags in the published statements.
• SGI = 0.8357 (Sales Growth Index <1): sales grew less (or contracted) relative to the prior period, which reduces one common incentive for aggressive revenue recognition tied to rapid growth (but other M-Score components remain concerning).

Top individual shareholders are dispersed: Đoàn Hữu Thuận 9.0%, Lê Viết Liên 3.5%, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà 3.1% with no single shareholder above 10%. The listed group holds 40.0% of HUB (influence under VAS 07), indicating group ties but not majority control of that related listed entity. Director-deal registrations show insiders and related persons actively registering both buys and sells in the past year.

• Compare the year-end receivables and ‘other receivables / long-term receivables’ lines in the FY2025 audited notes to the 4.5% of total assets figure and reconcile any related-party labels or terms (maturity, interest, collateral).
• Reconcile operating cash flow (statement of cash flows) to reported net profit across FY2023–FY2025 to reproduce the three-year cash conversion ratio (-1.15) and identify the main non-cash and working-capital drivers (changes in receivables, payables, prepayments, provisions).
• Review the audit report and Note on Accounting Policies for any changes year-over-year in revenue recognition, capitalization policy or allowance methodology that would explain changes in DSRI (1.50), SGAI (2.1745) and TATA (0.2726).
• Inspect the disclosures accompanying the director-deal registrations in exchange filings to see the stated volumes, planned timing and relationship to the registrant (insider, large holder, related person) and check whether corresponding insider statements appear in subsequent disclosure windows.