HDC
Real EstateValuation Breakdown
Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HDC
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HDC exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -0.629, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 10.9/100 highlights severe deficiencies in cash conversion and receivables management, raising concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of -0.629 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
- Earnings Quality Score of 10.9/100 signifies poor earnings quality, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and receivables at 0.0/100, suggesting significant risks in revenue recognition.
- SGAI of 2.1579 indicates excessive growth in selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to revenue growth, which could signal inefficiencies or misallocation of resources.
- Revenue growth indicated by SGI of 0.8357 suggests that the company is still expanding, albeit potentially unsustainably.
- The presence of institutional investors such as the ASEAN Deep Value Fund (3.9%) and Vietinbank Securities (3.8%) may provide some level of oversight and credibility.
The top shareholders are primarily individuals with relatively small stakes, which may lead to a lack of effective governance and oversight. This fragmented ownership structure could increase risks related to decision-making and accountability.
Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering investment in HDC, focusing on cash flow analysis and management practices. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improvement in cash conversion and receivables management is crucial.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for HDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate