SGC
Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Sa Giang
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 104.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 117.140
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Also note
- Trading liquidity is low.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 57.7%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Consumer peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1552nd pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 3.3%58th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals for SGC show a moderately elevated Beneish M-Score of -1.5641 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.80, indicating accounting behavior that is more aggressive than most Vietnamese companies and that has moved materially this year. Earnings-quality components are mixed: very high accruals quality (100/100) and strong cash conversion (89.2/100) but very weak receivables and revenue quality (0/100 each); solvency and distress metrics are comfortable (Altman Z-Score 7.99) and fundamentals are middling (Piotroski F-Score 6/9).
- Beneish M-Score: -1.5641, Vietnam peer percentile 78th — the score is above the US -1.78 cutoff and sits high versus Vietnamese peers; the YoY change +0.80 shows a notable shift in the M-Score direction compared with the prior year.
- DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.3340 — measures whether receivables are rising faster than sales; a value above 1 can indicate revenue recognition or collection issues.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 2.5494 — measures increases in asset components that are often subject to discretion (capitalized costs, other assets); a reading well above 1 suggests asset composition has become materially more aggressive.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.7064 — measures changes in depreciation rates; >1 indicates slower depreciation (i.e., lower depreciation expense relative to prior period), which can boost reported profits.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0187 — while the sign is negative (which reduces the M-Score contribution), it is small in magnitude and must be interpreted with the other indicators.
- Receivables and revenue quality = 0.0/100 each — the Earnings Quality Score components show complete weakness on receivables and on revenue recognition quality.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 3.3% of total assets (58th percentile) — non-trade receivables / prepayments / loans represent a non-trivial portion of assets relative to peers and merit scrutiny.
- Year-over-year movement: several Beneish components (AQI, DEPI, DSRI) moved enough to push the M-Score upward by +0.80, indicating the recent changes in accounting composition are the proximate driver of the elevated M-Score.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100 — the model's accruals component indicates low abnormal accruals relative to peers, suggesting current-period accruals are not a primary concern.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 1.15 (52nd percentile) and Cash conversion score 89.2/100 — operating cash flow has been converting reported profit into cash at a broadly average-to-strong rate over three years.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 1.0512 and GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.8790 — modest sales growth and an improving/strongening gross margin index (GMI < 1 indicates gross margin has not deteriorated) are supportive of earnings sustainability.
- Altman Z-Score = 7.99 (safe zone) — the company is distant from the typical bankruptcy thresholds used in the Z-Score framework.
- Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 — fundamentals are more positive than negative (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency metrics net to a neutral-to-favourable score).
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) positive; 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — the statutory balance-sheet signals of distress are absent.
Control is highly concentrated: Vĩnh Hoàn (VHC) holds 76.7%, indicating a dominant parent listed shareholder and strong group control. The next largest holders are two individuals at 10.2% and 4.0%; this concentrated ownership plus the presence of a majority-listed parent implies decisions and related-party transactions with the group are likely material.
- Compare the breakdown of 'Receivables' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 balance sheet and notes to the related-party and other receivables schedules to quantify the 3.3% of total assets identified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile FY2023–FY2025 profit, operating cash flows and the three-year cash-conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 1.15) using the consolidated cash-flow statement and the consolidated income statement to confirm cash conversion drivers.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation policy notes (useful lives, depreciation methods, changes in estimates) to understand the DEPI = 1.7064 signal and whether amortization/depreciation assumptions changed between years.
- Review the notes on asset reclassifications, other long-term assets and capitalized costs to explain AQI = 2.5494 (which measures increases in discretionary asset categories) and any related-party disclosures tied to those assets.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.62
- P/S
- 1.01
- ROE
- 31.8%
- ROA
- 23.8%
- EPS
- 17.993
- BVPS
- 64.891
- Gross Margin
- 30.1%
- Net Margin
- 17.3%
- D/E
- 0.03
- Current Ratio
- 2.30
- Rev Growth
- +5.4%
- Profit Growth
- +28.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.47
- Div Yield
- 1.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 7.1M
- Charter Capital
- 71.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Thực phẩm và đồ uống
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Sản xuất thực phẩm
- Sub-industry
- Thực phẩm
- Company Type
- CT