SDU

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Xây dựng và Phát triển Đô thị Sông Đà

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

12.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

42.444

Current

12.100

Gap

+250.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

29.78%

Kd(1-t)

2.96%

D/(D+E)

70.22%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

24.773

50%DCF Value

60.114

Blended Intrinsic

42.444

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SDU

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.66

Low Risk

DSRI

1.062

GMI

0.929

AQI

0.971

SGI

0.978

DEPI

0.997

SGAI

1.078

TATA

-0.035

LVGI

0.993

The Beneish M-Score of -2.6649 indicates that SDU is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 61.1/100 indicates moderate concerns, particularly with eq_receivables at 0.0/100 and eq_revenue at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
SGAI at 1.0783 indicates higher selling, general, and administrative expenses relative to sales, which could signal inefficiencies or potential mismanagement.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash flow management.
Beneish M-Score of -2.6649 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top three shareholders holding a combined 78.0%, raises potential governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few rather than minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SDU's revenue recognition practices and consider engaging with management regarding their strategies to improve earnings quality. Diversifying the ownership base could also mitigate governance risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.19

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.40

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-28.1%

Volatility

121.1%

Max Drawdown

-42.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

16.07P/E

P/B0.94

P/S0.79

ROE6.0%

ROA2.0%

EPS1094.93

BVPS18787.91

Gross Margin20.3%

Net Margin4.9%

D/E1.71

Current Ratio1.30

Rev Growth437.4%

Profit Growth1638.6%

EV/EBITDA6.68

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

20.0M

Charter Capital

200.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SDU — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Sông Đà

Inst

30.0%

6.0 trieu

Hoàng Văn Anh

Indiv

25.0%

5.0 trieu

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Xây Dựng An Phú Thịnh

Inst

23.0%

4.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VNDIRECT

Inst

16.3%

3.3 trieu

Lê Văn Lãnh

Indiv

10.0%

2.0 trieu

Vũ Hiền

Indiv

4.9%

970.000

Nguyễn Ngọc Phượng

Indiv

4.8%

968.600

Hoàng Viết Tường

Indiv

1.5%

300.000

ĐÁI NGÂN HÀ

Indiv

1.4%

271.400

Hoàng Thị Phương Thuý

Indiv

1.1%

210.000

Nguyễn Thế Lợi

Indiv

1.0%

200.000

Lê Tùng Hoa

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Phạm Bá Tôn

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Trần Văn Tuấn

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Board & Management

Hoàng Văn Anh25.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thế Lợi1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trịnh Xuân Thụy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Mạnh Khôi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Đình Đông

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Đức Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Thụ

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hoàng Ngọc Doanh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đình Bình

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Hà Thị Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trọng Phước

Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

FUEIP10080.1%SD465.0%SD665.0%SD564.2%SDT62.3%SD958.5%SDC51.0%SD351.0%S1249.0%SD240.8%SJE30.0%VCP30.0%

Computed 12/04/2026