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Consumer sector

VNC

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Vinacontrol
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT
37.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
73.422
Current
37.000
Gap
+98.4%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.000
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.50%
Ke
11.50%
x
E/(D+E)
69.20%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.35%
x
D/(D+E)
30.80%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.11%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF75.56B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
75.56B
Growth Rate
5.11%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
73.422
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

84
Good
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
98
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
57
Revenue Quality
58

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.79
Low Risk
DSRI
0.816
GMI
0.827
AQI
0.709
SGI
1.304
DEPI
0.959
SGAI
1.003
TATA
-0.029
LVGI
1.203

VNC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7944, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. The company's earnings quality score of 84.0/100, along with strong cash conversion metrics, suggests solid financial health despite some weaknesses in revenue and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.3045 indicates aggressive growth which may not be sustainable.
  • AQI of 0.7088 suggests potential concerns with earnings quality despite overall strong metrics.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality score of 84.0/100 reflects robust financial health.
  • High cash conversion rate of 98.4/100 indicates effective management of cash flows.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with the largest shareholder holding 24.1%, which may lead to governance risks. However, the presence of institutional ownership can provide some stability.

Recommendation

Monitor growth strategies closely due to the elevated SGI. Consider investing if the company can maintain its earnings quality while managing growth sustainably.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
5.59
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.02
Excellent
Composite
87
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+70.8%
Volatility
31.0%
Max Drawdown
-20.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.77P/E
P/B2.51
P/S0.76
ROE25.2%
ROA16.3%
EPS3612.49
BVPS15473.07
Gross Margin24.7%
Net Margin7.1%
D/E0.59
Current Ratio1.99
Rev Growth30.4%
Profit Growth117.8%
EV/EBITDA4.85
Div Yield1.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
21.0M
Charter Capital
210.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
Sub-industry
Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Daho Đầu Tư
Inst
24.1%
2.5 trieu
bùi duy chinh
Indiv
9.0%
950.361
Đỗ Vân Anh
Indiv
8.8%
925.533
Nguyễn Thị Thủy Ngân
Indiv
7.0%
733.347
Phạm Ngọc Dũng
Indiv
4.2%
441.295
Phạm Kim Khánh
Indiv
4.0%
420.000
barca global master fund, l.p
Inst
3.6%
382.000
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán EVS
Inst
3.6%
380.000
Phùng Tấn Phú
Indiv
2.2%
234.049
Nguyễn Thị Hạc
Indiv
1.9%
204.599
Tổng Công ty Thương mại Hà Nội
Inst
1.4%
150.000
Lê Ngọc Lợi
Indiv
1.4%
145.988
Công ty Tài Chính TNHH MTV Bưu Điện
Inst
0.9%
98.200
Lưu Ngọc Hiền
Indiv
0.8%
81.044
Phan Văn Hùng
Indiv
0.7%
71.366
Đào Nguyễn Thiên Nga
Indiv
0.6%
60.000
Mai Tiến Dũng
Indiv
0.6%
59.622
Phạm Mạnh Cường
Indiv
0.5%
48.779
Nguyễn Quang Minh
Indiv
0.3%
30.000
Nguyễn Quốc Minh
Indiv
0.3%
26.247
Vũ Ngọc Khoa
Indiv
0.2%
22.000
Trần Đăng Thành
Indiv
0.2%
17.020
Lương Minh Đệ
Indiv
0.1%
13.450
Bùi Duy Anh
Indiv
0.1%
12.523
Lê Quang Viêng
Indiv
0.1%
11.000
Board & Management
Bùi Duy Chinh9.0%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thủy Ngân7.0%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lưu Ngọc Hiền0.8%
Kế toán trưởng
Phan Văn Hùng0.7%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Mai Tiến Dũng0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quốc Minh0.3%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Dương Thanh Huyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Hương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trung Hiếu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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