PGS

Utilities

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh Khí Miền Nam

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT

52.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

37.293

Current

52.900

Gap

-29.5%

ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.600

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

8.70%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend1.69%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→2.000

Payout ratio→89.0%

Valuation

Dividends Per Share

2.000

Base Growth

1.69%

Cost of Equity

8.70%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

DDM Value

37.293

Value Decomposition

26%

74%

Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PGS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.43

Moderate

DSRI

0.866

GMI

0.980

AQI

1.134

SGI

0.957

DEPI

0.847

SGAI

1.031

TATA

0.036

LVGI

0.935

PGS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4333, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with an earnings quality score of 53.1 and a cash conversion rate of only 16.8, suggesting potential issues with cash flow sustainability.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 53.1 indicates moderate risk, particularly due to a cash conversion rate of just 16.8, which raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
The revenue quality score of 0.0 suggests that revenue recognition practices may be aggressive or misleading.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.4333 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
Strong margin score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cost management and profitability potential.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam, holds a significant 35.3% stake, indicating potential influence over corporate governance. However, the presence of multiple institutional investors may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

3.73

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.95

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+54.9%

Volatility

68.5%

Max Drawdown

-12.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

22.43P/E

P/B2.53

P/S0.42

ROE11.3%

ROA4.3%

EPS2300.05

BVPS20374.93

Gross Margin15.0%

Net Margin1.9%

D/E1.51

Current Ratio1.07

Rev Growth-4.0%

Profit Growth-0.8%

EV/EBITDA11.85

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

50.0M

Charter Capital

500.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt

Industry (ICB L3)

Nước & Khí đốt

Sub-industry

Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PGS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam

Inst

35.3%

17.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB

Inst

4.9%

2.4 trieu

Halley Sicav - Halley Asian Prosperity

Inst

4.3%

2.1 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Dầu khí An Pha

Inst

2.9%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VNDIRECT

Inst

2.0%

1.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ đầu tư Chứng khoán Đông Á

Inst

1.5%

757.580

Board & Management

Phan Quốc Nghĩa

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Thu Hiền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hà Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Đào Thanh Hằng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Ngọc Luận

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Hữu Thắng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Anh Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Văn Vĩnh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Huyền Linh

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hoàng Giang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Thị Hợp

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Top connections

FUEIP10080.1%BLF60.0%CNG56.0%PVB2 links PVG51.3%PGD50.5%MTG40.7%SSB35.3%HDG31.8%PTI20.0%SDU16.3%BHC14.0%

Computed 12/04/2026