VOS

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Biển Việt Nam

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

12.950

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

24.333

Current

12.950

Gap

+87.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

61.59%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

38.41%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

14.100

50%DCF Value

34.566

Blended Intrinsic

24.333

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VOS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.30

High Risk

DSRI

2.261

GMI

0.370

AQI

1.747

SGI

0.557

DEPI

2.710

SGAI

1.672

TATA

0.111

LVGI

1.469

The forensic assessment of VOS indicates significant risks related to earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality. With a Beneish M-Score of -1.2986, the company is close to the threshold indicating potential manipulation, compounded by an Earnings Quality Score of only 19.5/100, highlighting severe issues in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.2986 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 19.5/100 indicates very low earnings quality, particularly with eq_cash_conv and eq_revenue both at 0.0/100.

Positive Signals

The company has a relatively low SGI of 0.5566, indicating that sales growth is not overly aggressive compared to previous periods, which could suggest more stable operations.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam, holds a dominant 51.0% stake, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced oversight from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider divesting or avoiding VOS until there are clear improvements in earnings quality and transparency in financial reporting.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.85

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.46

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.1%

Volatility

50.0%

Max Drawdown

-33.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.48P/E

P/B0.93

P/S0.64

ROE14.8%

ROA9.0%

EPS2176.73

BVPS15112.45

Gross Margin6.2%

Net Margin9.8%

D/E0.85

Current Ratio2.50

Rev Growth-44.3%

Profit Growth-9.1%

EV/EBITDA5.32

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

140.0M

Charter Capital

1400.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VOS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam

Inst

51.0%

71.4 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.9%

6.9 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Á Châu

Inst

4.9%

6.8 trieu

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam

Inst

2.1%

2.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ Bảo Việt

Inst

1.9%

2.7 trieu

Quỹ Đầu Tư Chứng Khoán Bảo Việt

Inst

1.6%

2.3 trieu

Nguyễn Trung Kiên

Indiv

1.0%

1.4 trieu

Tập đoàn Bảo Việt

Inst

0.7%

1.0 trieu

Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited

Inst

0.1%

201.710

Board & Management

Cao Minh Tuấn

Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Việt Tiến

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Bá Trường

Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Thị Toan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Hồng Trường

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Hoàng Hữu Hùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Yến

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Châu Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Anh Thư

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Trường Thọ

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Quang Minh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đình Tú

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Tuấn Nam

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Minh Thu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CCT99.0%PHP92.6%KGM83.3%CCR80.9%QNP75.0%CDN75.0%SGP65.5%TCJ65.4%BTG60.0%MCF60.0%BVS59.9%FCS59.8%

Computed 12/04/2026