Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 10.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 11.509
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- 52.3%
- 12 monthsHistorical calibration
- Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
12-month sector-relative outlook
Median 12-month return difference versus Construction peers, for model gaps like this one.
- Not an absolute return forecast.
- Not a price target.
- A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
- The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
- Actual returns can fall outside it.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.3828th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 21.4%91st pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The forensic indicators show a mixed picture. The Beneish M-Score is -1.5876 (78th percentile among Vietnamese peers), signalling more aggressive accounting metrics than most local peers and a year-over-year change of -1.01 that marks the start of the deterioration in the score. Several Beneish components point to specific areas of change (DSRI 2.2607, DEPI 2.7103, LVGI 2.3529, SGAI 1.6717) while statutory loss tests are not met and accumulated losses are not present.
- Beneish DSRI (Days Sales Receivable Index) = 2.2607. DSRI measures receivables relative to sales; a value well above 1 can indicate receivables and revenue recognition expanding faster than sales. Here it is 2.2607, consistent with elevated receivables signals below.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 21.4% of total assets (91st percentile versus Vietnamese non-financial companies). This measure (prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable, long-term receivables) is unusually large relative to peers and is a material line-item to inspect.
- Beneish DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 2.7103. DEPI >1 indicates depreciation expense is lower relative to prior-period implied depreciation (i.e. the reported depreciation charge has fallen compared with implied economic depreciation), which can inflate earnings; 2.71 is a large value.
- Beneish LVGI (Leverage Growth Index) = 2.3529. LVGI >1 shows leverage (total debt/total assets) has increased; 2.35 indicates substantial leverage growth year-over-year, which raises risk if earnings/cashflow weaken.
- Earnings-Quality sub-scores: Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Receivables quality = 0.0/100, Revenue quality = 0.0/100. These scores measure how much reported profit converts into cash, the nature of receivables, and revenue persistence; zeros are clear concerns for cash/receivables/revenue sustainability.
- Altman Z-Score = 1.89 ("grey zone"). This measures distance to bankruptcy; 1.89 places the company in the grey zone rather than the safe zone.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. The Piotroski score measures nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency); 3/9 indicates weak fundamentals by that metric.
- Beneish SGAI (Sales, General & Admin Index) = 1.6717. SGAI >1 indicates SG&A is rising relative to sales and can signal expense recognition changes; 1.67 is elevated.
- Earnings-Quality overall = 18.3/100 and Margin quality = 27.3/100, with Accruals quality 57.0/100. The overall and margin scores are low, suggesting earnings may be of low quality even if accruals are not extremely extreme.
- Beneish GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 0.3704. GMI <1 means gross margin improved year-over-year; this component suggests gross-margin trends are favourable by the GMI measure.
- Beneish SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.5566. SGI <1 indicates sales shrank rather than grew; while shrinkage can be a concern, in Beneish logic a value below 1 reduces pressure to manage earnings via accruals (it does not itself prove conservatism).
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = 0.1112 (11.12%). TATA measures total accruals relative to assets; while not negligible, it is not extremely high versus many aggressive cases and accruals-quality is middling (57/100), not zero.
- No accumulated losses and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive. These balance-sheet facts show the company is not reporting negative retained earnings and has positive equity.
- Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020 Art. 120(1)(e), as amended) — none met. The audited annual statements do not trigger the listed-company statutory loss removal tests.
Majority ownership is concentrated: Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holds 51.0%. Other institutional holders include Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam 2.1%, Quỹ Đầu Tư Chứng Khoán Bảo Việt 1.6%, and BVH 0.7%. This is a state/sovereign-related controlling shareholding structure which can affect related-party flows, group transactions and reporting priorities.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) that reconcile trade receivables, prepayments and loans receivable to the line items in the balance sheet to explain the 21.4% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile operating cash flow to net profit in the cashflow statement and the management discussion to understand why three-year cash conversion is 0.38 (28th percentile) and why cash conversion quality scores are 0/100.
- Examine the fixed-asset note (useful lives, depreciation methods, additions and disposals) to assess the drivers of DEPI = 2.7103 and whether depreciation policies changed year-over-year.
- Check the related-party schedules and segment/notes for loans, guarantees, or large prepayments to group entities (and their terms) given the concentrated state-owner structure and the high receivables outside the trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.71
- P/S
- 0.49
- ROE
- 14.8%
- ROA
- 9.0%
- EPS
- 2.177
- BVPS
- 15.112
- Gross Margin
- 6.2%
- Net Margin
- 9.8%
- D/E
- 0.36
- Current Ratio
- 2.50
- Rev Growth
- −44.3%
- Profit Growth
- −9.1%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.07
- Div Yield
- 10.2%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 140M
- Charter Capital
- 1,400B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT