VNY
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNY
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The Beneish M-Score of -2.0586 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.
- Earnings Quality Score of 64.6/100 indicates moderate quality, with a concerning eq_receivables score of 18.2/100 suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
- The eq_margin score of 34.1/100 indicates low profitability relative to revenue, raising concerns about operational efficiency.
- The eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion, suggesting that the company is effectively turning its earnings into cash.
- The DSRI of 1.1671 is slightly above 1, indicating that the company is not significantly inflating its receivables relative to sales.
The ownership structure shows a significant concentration with the largest shareholder holding 24.6%, which could lead to potential governance risks and influence over decision-making. However, the presence of institutional ownership may provide some level of oversight.
Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and operational efficiency metrics. Given the elevated risk level, a cautious approach is recommended, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality signals before making significant investments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
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