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Consumer sector

HLB

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bia và Nước giải khát Hạ Long
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
385.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.284.291
Current
385.000
Gap
+233.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
63.40%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.38%
x
D/(D+E)
36.60%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF209.91B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
209.91B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
1.284.291
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HLB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

76
Good
Accrual Quality
50
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
25

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.30
Low Risk
DSRI
0.682
GMI
0.969
AQI
1.043
SGI
1.070
DEPI
1.274
SGAI
0.959
TATA
-0.136
LVGI
0.970

HLB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.2963, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 76.4 suggests some areas of concern, particularly in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • The revenue quality score is notably low at 25.0/100, raising concerns about potential aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • The significant individual ownership concentration, with the top four shareholders holding 87.3% of shares, may lead to governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.
Positive Signals
  • The company has a strong cash conversion rate of 100.0/100, indicating effective cash management.
  • The overall earnings quality score of 76.4/100 reflects a generally solid performance in areas such as margin and receivables management.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among a few individuals poses risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially sidelining minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor HLB closely for any changes in revenue recognition practices and consider diversifying their holdings to mitigate risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.30
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.43
Positive
Composite
83
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+24.9%
Volatility
96.1%
Max Drawdown
-30.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
7.80P/E
P/B1.92
P/S0.67
ROE27.3%
ROA17.2%
EPS43584.90
BVPS176799.78
Gross Margin19.6%
Net Margin8.6%
D/E0.58
Current Ratio2.33
Rev Growth7.0%
Profit Growth21.0%
EV/EBITDA3.78
Div Yield3.2%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.1M
Charter Capital
30.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Sản xuất bia
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HLB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Aseed Holding Company Limited
Inst
30.4%
940.000
Phạm Thị Đào
Indiv
23.9%
718.060
Doãn Thiện Tân
Indiv
19.4%
600.000
Doãn Trường Giang
Indiv
13.6%
420.209
Đoàn Văn Quang
Indiv
0.7%
22.000
Nguyễn Thị Trực
Indiv
0.5%
15.830
nguyen-quang-dung
Indiv
0.3%
9.100
Vũ Tế Vị
Indiv
0.3%
9.000
Lê Thanh Nghị
Indiv
0.2%
5.000
Shunjiro Suga
Indiv
0.1%
3.000
Board & Management
Doãn Trường Giang13.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc Kinh doanh/Tổng Giám đốc
Doãn Văn Quang0.7%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Trực0.5%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Shinijo Suga
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Kim Loan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Minh Hưng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đào Thị Xuyến
Kế toán trưởng
Vũ Thị Minh Châu
Giám đốc Sản xuất
Daisuke Komoto
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Văn Thiệu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Hồng Huệ
Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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