Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.800
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.860
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 12.6%85th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is -1.4514 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.78, indicating that its accounting metrics are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and have moved materially over one year. Beneish components show strong revenue growth (SGI 1.3403) and mild signs of impairment/quality deterioration (GMI 1.0728, LVGI 1.0180) but low total accruals (TATA 0.1999) and reduced days-sales-in-receivables (DSRI 0.7970). The earnings-quality composite is weak at 32.6/100 with very poor cash-conversion (0.0/100) and margin quality (0.0/100), while receivables quality scores 100/100. The Altman Z-Score is 0.96 (distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 (neutral).
- Elevated Beneish percentile: M-Score -1.4514 (80th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) — the score is above many peers and rose by +0.78 year-over-year (the YoY move is a signal of changing accounting tendencies).
- Low earnings-quality overall: Earnings-Quality Score 32.6/100; Cash-conversion 0.0/100 and Margin quality 0.0/100 — these measure cash-generation vs earnings and stability of margins, respectively, and both are very weak.
- Altman distress signal: Altman Z-Score 0.96, which falls in the standard 'distress' zone (measures multivariate bankruptcy distance using balance-sheet and income components).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle are material: 12.6% of total assets (84th percentile among Vietnamese non-financials) — this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and suggests non-operating receivables are relatively large.
- Revenue-quality and accruals concerns: Revenue quality 28.6/100 and Accruals quality 33.4/100 — these metrics indicate reported revenue and accrual patterns that score poorly on the earnings-quality model.
- Reduced receivables relative to sales: DSRI 0.7970 (Beneish DSRI <1 implies days sales in receivables fell year-over-year); Receivables quality 100.0/100 — measures specific indicators around receivables aging and alignment with sales.
- Low reported total accruals: TATA 0.1999 (measures total accruals scaled; a relatively low positive number implies limited accrual buildup in that metric).
- Sales growth present: SGI 1.3403 (the sales growth index >1 shows year-over-year sales increased; Beneish SGI captures growth pressure that can affect accounting choices).
- Neutral operational fundamentals: Piotroski F-Score 5/9 — a middling score showing neither clear operational deterioration nor clear improvement in the nine fundamental signals Piotroski uses.
Top-five shareholders are concentrated: Nguyễn Xuân Việt 18.6%, Nguyễn Mạnh Hà 11.8%, Nguyễn Huy Cường 11.4%, Vũ Đức Hoà 7.8%, and Nguyễn Ngọc Xuyên 7.6% (top five sum = 57.2%). No state ownership is indicated from the provided list. Director-deal registrations (0 sales, 6 purchase registrations between 2025-10-30 and 2026-10-30) are filings of intent rather than executed trades.
- Compare the 'Receivables, prepayments and other receivables' schedule in the FY2025 notes with the related-party transactions note to see what portion of the 12.6% of assets in 'receivables outside the trade cycle' are loans or prepayments to related parties.
- Reconcile cash-flow from operations to reported net income in the statement of cash flows and profit & loss (verify the components behind Cash-conversion = 0.0/100) to assess whether weak cash conversion stems from one-off timing items or persistent operating cash shortfalls.
- Inspect the revenue recognition note and the sales breakdown (domestic vs export, by product/segment) to understand drivers behind SGI = 1.3403 and Revenue quality = 28.6/100 (look for changes in contract terms, extended payment terms, or significant one-off sales).
- Check the accruals and provisions detail (movement in allowance for doubtful accounts, inventory provisions, depreciation policy) and the 'other receivables' aging to validate the low TATA 0.1999 and the high receivables-quality score.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.36
- P/S
- 1.03
- ROE
- 0.7%
- ROA
- 0.2%
- EPS
- 70
- BVPS
- 10.131
- Gross Margin
- 9.3%
- Net Margin
- 0.5%
- D/E
- 1.21
- Current Ratio
- 1.95
- Rev Growth
- +34.0%
- Profit Growth
- +175.4%
- EV/EBITDA
- 46.85
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 33.0M
- Charter Capital
- 330B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT