V21

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Vinaconex 21

Bất động sảnCT

6.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.257

Current

6.200

Gap

-31.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

33.00%

Kd(1-t)

1.17%

D/(D+E)

67.00%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

8.513

60%DCF Value

-11.647

Blended Intrinsic

4.257

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — V21

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.49

Elevated

DSRI

0.797

GMI

1.069

AQI

0.752

SGI

1.340

DEPI

0.813

SGAI

0.620

TATA

0.200

LVGI

1.118

V21 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.4853, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 32.6/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 32.6/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues in cash flow management.
SGI of 1.3403 indicates aggressive growth, which may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.4853 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, providing some reassurance to investors.
Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable, which can be a positive signal for revenue collection.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the top five shareholders holding a combined 33.5%. This concentration can lead to potential governance risks and less alignment with minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and the sustainability of growth rates. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering a deeper analysis of operational efficiency and governance practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.86

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.11

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+11.7%

Volatility

33.8%

Max Drawdown

-19.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

82.57P/E

P/B0.60

P/S0.46

ROE0.7%

ROA0.2%

EPS73.87

BVPS10134.84

Gross Margin9.3%

Net Margin0.6%

D/E2.98

Current Ratio1.64

Rev Growth34.0%

Profit Growth175.4%

EV/EBITDA32.54

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.0M

Charter Capital

120.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for V21 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Xuân Việt

Indiv

11.2%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Vinh

Indiv

7.0%

422.000

Đoàn Văn Quang

Indiv

6.7%

401.000

Vũ Đức Hạnh

Indiv

4.3%

520.000

Nguyễn Viết Hiện

Indiv

4.3%

514.580

Nguyễn Mạnh Hà

Indiv

3.4%

410.000

nguyen-huy-cuong

Indiv

2.2%

266.899

nguyen-viet-hung-2

Indiv

1.8%

213.099

Ngô Văn Dũng

Indiv

0.9%

35.400

Lê Thị Hiếu

Indiv

0.6%

10.200

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam

Inst

0.3%

39.000

Tô Ngọc Thành

Indiv

0.2%

3.000

Tống Văn Thuận

Indiv

0.1%

2.020

Nguyễn Tuấn Cường

Indiv

0.1%

2.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Xuân Việt11.2%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đức Hạnh4.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Mạnh Hà3.4%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Huy Cường2.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hữu Khánh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Bá Hanh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Trường Quân

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Minh Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VIW98.2%VCC71.1%VC155.1%ND251.1%VAV51.0%DTD29.2%PHC21.2%TLH2 links VLB11.2%BVH11.2%PVV9.9%DXG7.0%

Computed 12/04/2026