KHG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Khải Hoàn Land

Bất động sảnCT

5.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.351

Current

5.600

Gap

+31.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

79.19%

Kd(1-t)

6.15%

D/(D+E)

20.81%

WACC

12.05%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

14.703

60%DCF Value

-2.142

Blended Intrinsic

7.351

Value Decomposition

38%

62%

Explicit period (38%)Terminal value (62%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KHG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.70

Elevated

DSRI

0.604

GMI

0.691

AQI

0.968

SGI

1.998

DEPI

0.888

SGAI

0.585

TATA

0.092

LVGI

1.172

KHG exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.6966, which is close to the threshold indicating manipulation risk. The earnings quality score of 39.7/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, further raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.6966 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality score of 39.7/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and revenue quality at 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.6044 indicates a lower risk of revenue inflation compared to prior periods, suggesting stable sales.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash collection.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 30.5%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should proceed with caution, closely monitoring KHG's financial disclosures and performance metrics. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality and transparency before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.56

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.49

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+32.7%

Volatility

39.4%

Max Drawdown

-25.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

44.52P/E

P/B0.56

P/S4.78

ROE1.3%

ROA1.0%

EPS147.79

BVPS11762.00

Gross Margin21.2%

Net Margin10.7%

D/E0.32

Current Ratio2.20

Rev Growth99.8%

Profit Growth21.6%

EV/EBITDA135.46

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

449.4M

Charter Capital

4494.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KHG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-khai-hoan

Indiv

30.5%

137.2 trieu

Trần Thị Thu Hương

Indiv

9.9%

44.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Nhàn

Indiv

6.0%

19.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH KH Invest

Inst

4.5%

20.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Hoài Quyên

Indiv

4.3%

7.5 trieu

Phan Tuấn Nghĩa

Indiv

4.0%

17.8 trieu

Đinh Thị Nhật Hạnh

Indiv

1.4%

6.4 trieu

Võ Công Sơn

Indiv

1.0%

4.4 trieu

Nguyễn Thế Khoa

Indiv

1.0%

4.4 trieu

nguyen-thi-le-thuy

Indiv

1.0%

4.4 trieu

Board & Management

Nguyễn Khải Hoàn30.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Thị Nhật Hạnh1.4%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Công Sơn1.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Minh Phụ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Phương Kiều

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thu Trang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phùng Quang Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Mạnh Toàn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Khu Việt Nghĩa

Kế toán trưởng

Hoàng Phương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

FPT30.5%LM39.9%UPS9.9%VXT9.9%VIB9.9%ADC9.9%VE39.9%HLB9.9%CAN9.9%PVL9.9%KGM9.9%BCB9.9%

Computed 12/04/2026