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Cyclicals sector

LO5

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 5
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
0
Current
500
Gap
-100.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Ebitda
BVPS
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LO5

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

31
Weak
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
3
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
18
Revenue Quality
5

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.67
Low Risk
DSRI
1.634
GMI
0.572
AQI
1.035
SGI
0.607
DEPI
0.914
SGAI
1.611
TATA
-0.020
LVGI
1.024

The Beneish M-Score of -2.6735 indicates that LO5 is not currently exhibiting signs of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the low Earnings Quality Score of 30.8/100, particularly concerning cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 30.8/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with eq_cash_conv at 2.6/100 and eq_receivables at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with cash flow and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6735 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The dominant ownership by Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam at 51.0% suggests a strong influence on company decisions, which may limit minority shareholder rights and increase risks of conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor LO5's cash flow and revenue recognition practices, and consider engaging with management regarding improvements in earnings quality metrics before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
-1.56
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.85
Negative
Composite
21
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
135.9%
Max Drawdown
-69.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-0.39P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.07
ROE4.5%
ROA-1.9%
EPS-1037.13
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin13.5%
Net Margin-17.8%
D/E-3.30
Current Ratio0.60
Rev Growth-39.3%
Profit Growth10.5%
EV/EBITDA54.12
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.1M
Charter Capital
51.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LO5 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
2.6 trieu
Trần Văn Mão
Indiv
1.9%
93.350
Vũ Thị Hồng Xuyến
Indiv
1.3%
65.810
Lưu Huy Phúc
Indiv
0.6%
32.548
Lê Đình Dương
Indiv
0.6%
27.700
Phạm Đình San
Indiv
0.4%
20.600
Nguyễn Văn Nhuận
Indiv
0.2%
11.990
Phạm Thị Ánh
Indiv
0.2%
10.609
Đinh Thành Lê
Indiv
0.2%
8.662
Cù Minh Kim
Indiv
0.2%
7.725
Nguyễn Hồ Bắc
Indiv
0.1%
7.160
Phạm Văn Hoàn
Indiv
0.1%
5.994
Board & Management
Lưu Huy Phúc0.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Thành Lê0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Cù Minh Kim0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Hoàn0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hồng Hạ
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Thị Phương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Dũng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Lưu Sỹ Học
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thùy Dương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Xuân Thông
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Thanh Phong
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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