VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Cyclicals sector

L35

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ khí Lắp máy Lilama
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
4.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
1.798
Current
4.500
Gap
-60.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA3.23B
Fair EV/EBITDA26.3x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
3.23B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
26.3x
-
Net Debt
79.18B
=
Equity Value
1.798
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L35

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

36
Weak
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
23
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49
Moderate
DSRI
1.489
GMI
0.737
AQI
0.872
SGI
0.712
DEPI
1.630
SGAI
1.315
TATA
-0.007
LVGI
1.007

L35 exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly highlighted by its Beneish M-Score of -2.4931, which suggests a lower risk of manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 36.1/100, combined with poor cash conversion metrics, raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.4931 indicates lower risk of manipulation, but DSRI of 1.4894 suggests potential issues with inventory management.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 36.1/100, particularly low cash conversion (23.1/100) and receivables (0.0/100), raises concerns about the quality of earnings.
Positive Signals
  • High accrual score of 97.3/100 indicates that reported earnings are largely based on actual transactions rather than accounting adjustments.
Ownership Risk

The significant ownership by Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam (51.0%) suggests a strong influence on corporate governance, which could be a double-edged sword in terms of accountability and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor L35's cash flow performance and consider the implications of its ownership structure on governance. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.04
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.29
Negative
Composite
13
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-54.5%
Volatility
153.8%
Max Drawdown
-62.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-14.72P/E
P/B2.92
P/S0.30
ROE-18.0%
ROA-0.5%
EPS-305.71
BVPS1543.01
Gross Margin7.4%
Net Margin-2.1%
D/E36.37
Current Ratio0.99
Rev Growth-28.8%
Profit Growth33.1%
EV/EBITDA-797.54
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.3M
Charter Capital
32.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L35 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty lắp máy Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
1.7 trieu
Ngô Quốc Thịnh
Indiv
10.0%
326.600
Nguyễn Gia Khánh
Indiv
7.2%
235.710
Ngô Minh Hoa
Indiv
4.3%
141.800
Lê Hữu Điều
Indiv
0.8%
27.243
Trần Văn Hùng
Indiv
0.8%
26.515
Nguyễn Tất Linh
Indiv
0.4%
14.670
Bùi Sỹ Chiến
Indiv
0.3%
10.000
Nguyễn Văn Huân
Indiv
0.3%
9.065
Nguyễn Giang Nam
Indiv
0.2%
6.060
Nguyễn Xuân Chấp
Indiv
0.1%
4.000
Board & Management
Ngô Quốc Thịnh10.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Giang Nam0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Minh Phượng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Văn Việt Hưng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Văn Triều
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lại Viết Tân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Thế Bình
Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thị Như Quỳnh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Quang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mạnh Hưởng
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Bảo Toàn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Hồng Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Tấn Tuyến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →