NAF

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Nafoods Group

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

48.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

15.445

Current

48.100

Gap

-67.9%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

48.35%

Kd(1-t)

6.67%

D/(D+E)

51.65%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.80%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→116.38B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

116.38B

Growth Rate

6.80%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

15.445

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NAF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.07

Moderate

DSRI

0.777

GMI

1.241

AQI

1.133

SGI

1.436

DEPI

1.193

SGAI

0.697

TATA

0.015

LVGI

1.285

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0656 indicates that NAF is unlikely to be manipulating earnings, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.4360 and low revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raise concerns about growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.4360 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual performance.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition, which could impact financial reliability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 72.8/100 reflects a generally strong earnings quality, particularly with high accruals (94.1/100) and receivables (100.0/100).
Beneish M-Score of -2.0656 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng holding 43.3%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration could impact minority shareholders' influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and growth sustainability, given the elevated SGI. It may be prudent to engage with management regarding their growth strategies and revenue reporting to ensure transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.42

Grey Zone

Sharpe

2.88

Excellent

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+120.6%

Volatility

21.1%

Max Drawdown

-15.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

19.99P/E

P/B3.72

P/S1.41

ROE16.5%

ROA6.7%

EPS2135.72

BVPS11472.92

Gross Margin22.7%

Net Margin7.1%

D/E1.95

Current Ratio1.15

Rev Growth46.3%

Profit Growth25.5%

EV/EBITDA13.51

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

61.2M

Charter Capital

611.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Đồ uống & giải khát

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NAF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

43.3%

26.5 trieu

Vietnam Holding Ltd

Inst

4.7%

1.6 trieu

PHAN THỊ MINH CHÂU

Indiv

1.7%

1.1 trieu

Lê Tuấn Anh

Indiv

1.3%

814.563

Nguyễn Mạnh Cường

Indiv

1.0%

623.434

nguyen-khanh-linh

Indiv

0.8%

500.000

Đặng Thị Khánh Chi

Indiv

0.8%

500.000

Điền Thị Lan Phương

Indiv

0.8%

442.000

Phạm Duy Thái

Indiv

0.8%

494.276

Lê Tuấn

Indiv

0.6%

407.860

Nguyễn Tiến Chinh

Indiv

0.5%

332.345

Nguyễn Thị Trang

Indiv

0.3%

191.784

Ngô Sỹ Mạnh

Indiv

0.3%

164.991

Diệp Thị Mỹ Hảo

Indiv

0.2%

150.000

Hồ Hải Quân

Indiv

0.1%

97.174

Đặng Thị Loan

Indiv

0.1%

84.659

Phan Minh Đức

Indiv

0.1%

64.250

Board & Management

Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng43.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

PHAN THỊ MINH CHÂU1.7%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Duy Thái0.8%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Điền Thị Lan Phương0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Tiến Chinh0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Diệp Thị Mỹ Hảo0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Loan0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Phương Hồng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hồ Quốc Công

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lâm Trung Kiên

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Johan de Geer

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Johan Nyvene

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Ryan Walter Galloway

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

APP43.3%L632 links HNG43.3%TTA43.3%ABC43.3%NDT43.3%VWS43.3%CCS43.3%SSI43.3%MBB2 links HLS43.3%EFI43.3%

Computed 12/04/2026