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Consumer sector

HNG

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Nông nghiệp Quốc tế Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
6.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
475
Current
6.100
Gap
-92.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Cash Flow
BVPS
950
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
950

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

53
Fair
Accrual Quality
61
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
49
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-5.39
Low Risk
DSRI
0.936
GMI
-4.327
AQI
1.090
SGI
1.377
DEPI
1.094
SGAI
0.652
TATA
-0.099
LVGI
1.050

HNG's Beneish M-Score of -5.3868 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 52.5/100, particularly the low cash conversion rate of 40.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 52.5/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Cash conversion rate at 40.0/100 suggests that a significant portion of earnings may not be realized in cash.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -5.3868 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, with Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Trường Hải holding 27.6%, which may provide stability but also raises concerns about potential influence over management decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and earnings sustainability, considering the elevated risks associated with low cash conversion. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and market conditions is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
-1.28
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.39
Negative
Composite
28
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-7.2%
Volatility
47.1%
Max Drawdown
-25.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-7.30P/E
P/B6.79
P/S10.54
ROE-72.8%
ROA-5.4%
EPS-883.19
BVPS949.54
Gross Margin20.5%
Net Margin-144.5%
D/E17.89
Current Ratio0.19
Rev Growth37.7%
Profit Growth23.6%
EV/EBITDA28.77
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1108.6M
Charter Capital
11085.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HNG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập Đoàn Trường Hải
Inst
27.6%
306.3 trieu
Công ty TNHH Sản Xuất Và Thương Mại Trân Oanh
Inst
5.0%
55.0 trieu
Trần Bá Dương
Indiv
4.6%
50.8 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Đầu Tư Cao Su An Thịnh
Inst
4.1%
31.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Quốc tế Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
Inst
3.9%
43.6 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Đầu Tư Cao Su Cường Thịnh
Inst
3.6%
27.5 trieu
Vũ Thị Thúy Hương
Indiv
2.6%
23.2 trieu
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng
Indiv
2.6%
23.2 trieu
nguyen-thanh-quang
Indiv
2.6%
23.2 trieu
Nguyễn Hùng Minh
Indiv
1.0%
10.9 trieu
Board & Management
Trần Bá Dương4.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Thị Tuyết Loan
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thùy Dương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Bảo Sơn
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Xuân Thức
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Loan
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Hoàng Phi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đặng Công Trực
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Võ Thị Mỹ Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Bùi Minh Khoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đoàn Nguyên Đức
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thiên Tường
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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