ABC

Technology

Công ty Cổ phần Truyền thông VMG

Viễn thông/Viễn thông di độngCT

11.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

28.836

Current

11.900

Gap

+142.3%

ModelDCF PE BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Technology

Defaulted to technology (no specific sector mapping found)

ModelDCF + P/E Blend

Intrinsic = 60% x DCF Value + 40% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

Technology companies combine high growth potential with the risk of overvaluation. This model blends DCF (60% weight, capturing long-duration growth) with a P/E sanity check (40% weight, capping speculative excess). The DCF uses the slowest growth decay (0.05) recognizing that tech companies can sustain competitive advantages longer. The P/E component applies a dynamic ceiling: max P/E = min(growth% x 1.5, 30), preventing runaway valuations.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

75.29%

Kd(1-t)

6.84%

D/(D+E)

24.71%

WACC

11.93%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default8.00%

Growth decays 5%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Max fair P/E→16x

Valuation

60%DCF Value

22.254

40%P/E Value

38.708

Blended Intrinsic

28.836

Value Decomposition

48%

52%

Explicit period (48%)Terminal value (52%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ABC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.04

Moderate

DSRI

0.959

GMI

0.047

AQI

0.904

SGI

1.151

DEPI

1.173

SGAI

1.717

TATA

0.180

LVGI

0.545

ABC's Beneish M-Score of -2.0357 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 29.6/100, particularly the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 29.6/100 indicates poor earnings quality, especially with cash conversion at 0.0/100.
SGAI of 1.7167 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.0357 is below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.

Ownership Risk

The largest shareholder, Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam, holds 28.3%, indicating significant institutional influence. However, the presence of multiple individual shareholders with small stakes may lead to governance risks.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and consider the implications of the low earnings quality score. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious stance until improvements in cash conversion and overall earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.84

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.03

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-2.7%

Volatility

63.2%

Max Drawdown

-37.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

2.42P/E

P/B0.41

P/S0.18

ROE18.3%

ROA11.7%

EPS4838.54

BVPS28909.45

Gross Margin1.9%

Net Margin7.5%

D/E0.33

Current Ratio3.75

Rev Growth15.1%

Profit Growth1304.2%

EV/EBITDA3.11

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

20.4M

Charter Capital

203.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Viễn thông

Industry (ICB L3)

Viễn thông di động

Sub-industry

Viễn thông di động

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ABC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập Đoàn Bưu Chính Viễn Thông Việt Nam

Inst

28.3%

5.8 trieu

Vũ Hoàng Việt

Indiv

3.9%

800.000

Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

1.5%

300.270

Đặng Thị Hường

Indiv

0.2%

39.020

Board & Management

Phạm Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đăng Thắng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Linh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Dương Thị Thương

Kế toán trưởng

Domingo Alonso

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tấn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Torben Kjaer

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thị Hồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

TRẦN BÌNH DƯƠNG

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thị Nghĩa Ninh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

PMJ51.0%POT50.0%PMT49.8%CKV49.0%PTP49.0%VTC46.7%NAF43.3%KST33.9%TST32.8%HAX32.6%VTE32.0%ICT31.4%

Computed 12/04/2026