HPP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Sơn Hải Phòng

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

81.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.688

Current

81.900

Gap

-89.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

40.99%

Kd(1-t)

7.02%

D/(D+E)

59.01%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.38%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

66.334

50%DCF Value

-48.958

Blended Intrinsic

8.688

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.89

Moderate

DSRI

1.136

GMI

1.019

AQI

1.070

SGI

1.147

DEPI

0.911

SGAI

0.945

TATA

0.064

LVGI

1.000

HPP's Beneish M-Score of -1.8889 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it falls below the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 48.6/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8889 suggests potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality cash conversion score of 14.2/100 indicates significant issues in converting earnings into actual cash flow.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, suggesting effective collection practices.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of institutional investors, which may provide some stability; however, the presence of significant individual shareholders could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and operational performance before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.17

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.33

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-7.9%

Volatility

29.5%

Max Drawdown

-21.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

8.44P/E

P/B1.23

P/S0.48

ROE20.4%

ROA8.0%

EPS12973.22

BVPS67699.92

Gross Margin19.2%

Net Margin7.4%

D/E1.44

Current Ratio1.37

Rev Growth14.7%

Profit Growth15.0%

EV/EBITDA6.94

Div Yield3.6%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.0M

Charter Capital

80.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HPP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Sơn Tàu Biển Chugoku

Inst

10.2%

814.320

afc vietnam fund

Inst

10.1%

800.400

nguyen-thi-xuan-dung

Indiv

8.7%

697.704

nguyen-van-vien

Indiv

7.7%

615.142

Lưu Thị Phương Lan

Indiv

5.8%

463.304

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Indiv

4.2%

330.537

Công ty trách nhiệm hữu hạn VICO

Inst

3.5%

281.324

Bùi Kim Ngọc

Indiv

2.9%

236.483

Phạm Thị Hương Lan

Indiv

1.7%

135.720

Nguyễn Mộng Lân

Indiv

1.6%

126.219

Vũ Trung Dũng

Indiv

0.5%

41.909

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Trâm

Indiv

0.5%

40.494

Lại Thị Bích

Indiv

0.4%

34.037

Nguyễn Đăng Ngọc

Indiv

0.3%

22.152

Hoàng Thị Thu

Indiv

0.2%

19.543

Lã Quỳnh Chi

Indiv

0.1%

10.838

nguyen-thanh-son

Indiv

0.1%

7.629

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Viện7.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Dũng4.2%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Kim Ngọc2.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Mộng Lân1.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Trung Dũng0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Trâm0.5%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Thị Thu0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lã Quỳnh Chi0.1%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

DAD18.9%EVE14.0%LBM10.1%ABI10.1%DXP10.1%NST10.1%EID10.1%VTB10.1%GDT10.1%DSN10.1%HAX10.1%TCT10.1%

Computed 12/04/2026