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DSN

Công ty Cổ phần Công viên nước Đầm Sen

VietnamCyclicalsDu lịch và Giải tríDu lịch & Giải tríHOSECT
36.000
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
36.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
44.388

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Du lịch và Giải trí→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Du lịch và Giải trí” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→103.41B
Fair EV/EBITDA→4.0x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→36.000
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
44.388
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA103.4 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·359349327263185208270260194216190167155···
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1772399172389512510450136153132···
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·3282672731631061601621218415450921···
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·11713748111257331···
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·10.750.40.2210.40.20.40.30.100.1···
Net Inventories
·21110.70.60.70.80.841.00.71···
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·21110.70.60.70.80.841.00.71···
Other current assets
·1222210.90.60.40.60.70.80.8···
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000000.30.3···
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2425192016166449671014···
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.20.20.200···
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·00.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.20.20.200···
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·18221593753545811···
Tangible fixed assets
·1821159345353346···
Intagible fixed assets
·0.010.050.090.10.230000.9245···
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·00000000442222···
Investments in associate companies
·0000022200000···
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000.50.50.522···
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00000−2−2−2−0.5−0.5−0.5−0.50···
Other non-current assets
·3339340.70.10.020.060.030.20.2···
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·3339340.70.10.020.060.030.070.2···
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·383374347283201224276264243222198177169···
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·275830331818281811791111···
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·265729321713281811791111···
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·000000.40000000···
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·000.010000.01000.030.000.040.07···
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·110.90.70.550.10.090.10.10.10.090.09···
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000050000000···
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·355316317251183206248246232215189166158···
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·355316317251183206248246232215189166158···
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·121121121121121121121121121121858585···
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·888888888823117···
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·225186187121537311911610386826257···
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·383374347283201224276264243222198177169···
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·121121121121121121121121121121858585···
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·0.70.50.60.70.840000000···

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
45
Weak
Accrual Quality
70
Cash Conversion
49
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
96
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.15 · 86th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +1.68
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.724
GMI
1.067
AQI
1.695
SGI
0.834
DEPI
0.841
SGAI
1.099
TATA
0.075
LVGI
0.454

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.5131st pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.3%20th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The accounting signals show a mix of concerns and strengths. The Beneish M-Score is -1.1539 (86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.68, signalling that DSN’s reported numbers are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that accounting metrics have shifted materially year-on-year. At the same time, the company has a high Altman Z-Score (14.90 — in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance) and strong margin quality (95.7/100).

Red Flags
  • Beneish components: DSRI = 1.7244 (days-sales outstanding / sales receivables index) — a high DSRI typically indicates rising receivables relative to sales and can signal revenue recognition or collectability pressure.
  • Beneish components: AQI = 1.6947 (asset quality index) — an elevated AQI implies more assets being reclassified to long‑lived, intangible or other non‑current categories, which can reflect cost capitalization or shifts in asset mix.
  • Earnings-quality sub-scores: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these scores indicate the weakest possible signal on those two dimensions, consistent with concerns about the persistence/quality of reported revenue and the composition/collectability of receivables.
  • Vietnamese cash-conversion check (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.51 (31st percentile) — a low conversion ratio indicates profits are not being converted into cash at the same pace as peers.
  • Beneish GMI = 1.0666 (gross margin index > 1) — a GMI > 1 measures deteriorating gross margins year-over-year, which can create pressure to manage earnings.
  • M-Score year-over-year change = +1.68 — the M-Score has moved substantially year-on-year; Beneish year-to-year correlation is low, so this trajectory is an important secondary cue rather than a deterministic label.
  • DEPI = 0.8407 (depreciation index < 1) — a DEPI below 1 means depreciable assets’ reported depreciation expense is rising relative to the prior period (or the opposite depending on sign conventions); it can reflect changes in useful lives, impairment, or asset additions and should be checked in notes.
Positive Signals
  • Altman Z-Score = 14.90 — places DSN well into the ‘safe’ range on the Altman bankruptcy-distance metric, indicating low near-term insolvency risk by that model.
  • Margin quality = 95.7/100 — suggests reported margins are stable and of high quality relative to peers.
  • Accruals quality = 70.2/100 and TATA = 0.0745 (total accruals to total assets) — the accruals metrics are not extreme; a relatively low TATA indicates overall reported accruals are modest relative to assets.
  • SGI = 0.8339 (sales growth index < 1) — SGI < 1 measures a contraction in reported sales year-over-year, which can reduce incentive to aggressively inflate growth-driven revenues.
  • Vietnamese statutory and loss checks: no accumulated losses, parent profit not negative in any of the last years, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and no statutory loss-test triggers under Decree 155/2020 as amended — these are measurable facts in the audited statements that reduce certain statutory accounting concerns.
Ownership Risk

Shareholdings are concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Du lịch Phú Thọ holds 33.5% (largest institutional block), and an individual, Kenji Yabe, holds 10.6%; other institutional and individual stakes are smaller (afc vietnam fund 4.7%, two individuals at 0.6% and 0.4%). This indicates a dominant institutional majority owner plus a material individual holder, which can affect group-related transactions and related-party flows in the financials.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 and prior-year notes on trade receivables, prepayments and ‘loans and long-term receivables’ to reconcile the high DSRI (1.7244) and the receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle figure (0.3% of total assets).
  • Reconcile cash-flow statement and the operating cash-flow / net-profit ratio (3‑year = 0.51) by reviewing the reconciliation of net profit to cash flows (the cash-flow notes) to identify major non-cash items and working-capital drivers.
  • Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note for any changes in useful lives, impairment, additions or disposals that explain DEPI = 0.8407 and the AQI = 1.6947 (asset reclassifications or capitalization policy changes).
  • Review related‑party disclosures and the ‘transactions with shareholders/group companies’ schedules to see whether receivables, prepayments or other off-cycle balances involve the large shareholder (Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Du lịch Phú Thọ) or other related parties.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
14.90
Safe Zone
Sharpe
−0.74
Negative
Composite
81
70 and above
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.51×Turnover0.47×Leverage1.08=ROE20.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−8.4%
Volatility
17.2%
Max Drawdown
−16.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.12P/E
P/B
1.25
P/S
2.44
ROE
21.6%
ROA
19.1%
EPS
5.997
BVPS
29.357
Gross Margin
56.9%
Net Margin
39.9%
D/E
0.00
Current Ratio
13.59
Rev Growth
−16.6%
Profit Growth
−21.8%
EV/EBITDA
1.28
Div Yield
4.4%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
12.1M
Charter Capital
121B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3)
Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ giải trí
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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