DSN
Công ty Cổ phần Công viên nước Đầm Sen
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 36.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 44.388
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.5131st pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%20th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The accounting signals show a mix of concerns and strengths. The Beneish M-Score is -1.1539 (86th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.68, signalling that DSN’s reported numbers are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and that accounting metrics have shifted materially year-on-year. At the same time, the company has a high Altman Z-Score (14.90 — in the ‘safe’ zone for bankruptcy distance) and strong margin quality (95.7/100).
- Beneish components: DSRI = 1.7244 (days-sales outstanding / sales receivables index) — a high DSRI typically indicates rising receivables relative to sales and can signal revenue recognition or collectability pressure.
- Beneish components: AQI = 1.6947 (asset quality index) — an elevated AQI implies more assets being reclassified to long‑lived, intangible or other non‑current categories, which can reflect cost capitalization or shifts in asset mix.
- Earnings-quality sub-scores: Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 — these scores indicate the weakest possible signal on those two dimensions, consistent with concerns about the persistence/quality of reported revenue and the composition/collectability of receivables.
- Vietnamese cash-conversion check (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.51 (31st percentile) — a low conversion ratio indicates profits are not being converted into cash at the same pace as peers.
- Beneish GMI = 1.0666 (gross margin index > 1) — a GMI > 1 measures deteriorating gross margins year-over-year, which can create pressure to manage earnings.
- M-Score year-over-year change = +1.68 — the M-Score has moved substantially year-on-year; Beneish year-to-year correlation is low, so this trajectory is an important secondary cue rather than a deterministic label.
- DEPI = 0.8407 (depreciation index < 1) — a DEPI below 1 means depreciable assets’ reported depreciation expense is rising relative to the prior period (or the opposite depending on sign conventions); it can reflect changes in useful lives, impairment, or asset additions and should be checked in notes.
- Altman Z-Score = 14.90 — places DSN well into the ‘safe’ range on the Altman bankruptcy-distance metric, indicating low near-term insolvency risk by that model.
- Margin quality = 95.7/100 — suggests reported margins are stable and of high quality relative to peers.
- Accruals quality = 70.2/100 and TATA = 0.0745 (total accruals to total assets) — the accruals metrics are not extreme; a relatively low TATA indicates overall reported accruals are modest relative to assets.
- SGI = 0.8339 (sales growth index < 1) — SGI < 1 measures a contraction in reported sales year-over-year, which can reduce incentive to aggressively inflate growth-driven revenues.
- Vietnamese statutory and loss checks: no accumulated losses, parent profit not negative in any of the last years, owner’s equity (excluding minority interest) positive, and no statutory loss-test triggers under Decree 155/2020 as amended — these are measurable facts in the audited statements that reduce certain statutory accounting concerns.
Shareholdings are concentrated: Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Du lịch Phú Thọ holds 33.5% (largest institutional block), and an individual, Kenji Yabe, holds 10.6%; other institutional and individual stakes are smaller (afc vietnam fund 4.7%, two individuals at 0.6% and 0.4%). This indicates a dominant institutional majority owner plus a material individual holder, which can affect group-related transactions and related-party flows in the financials.
- Compare FY2025 and prior-year notes on trade receivables, prepayments and ‘loans and long-term receivables’ to reconcile the high DSRI (1.7244) and the receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle figure (0.3% of total assets).
- Reconcile cash-flow statement and the operating cash-flow / net-profit ratio (3‑year = 0.51) by reviewing the reconciliation of net profit to cash flows (the cash-flow notes) to identify major non-cash items and working-capital drivers.
- Inspect the fixed-asset and depreciation note for any changes in useful lives, impairment, additions or disposals that explain DEPI = 0.8407 and the AQI = 1.6947 (asset reclassifications or capitalization policy changes).
- Review related‑party disclosures and the ‘transactions with shareholders/group companies’ schedules to see whether receivables, prepayments or other off-cycle balances involve the large shareholder (Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Du lịch Phú Thọ) or other related parties.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.25
- P/S
- 2.44
- ROE
- 21.6%
- ROA
- 19.1%
- EPS
- 5.997
- BVPS
- 29.357
- Gross Margin
- 56.9%
- Net Margin
- 39.9%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 13.59
- Rev Growth
- −16.6%
- Profit Growth
- −21.8%
- EV/EBITDA
- 1.28
- Div Yield
- 4.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 12.1M
- Charter Capital
- 121B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Du lịch và Giải trí
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Du lịch & Giải trí
- Sub-industry
- Dịch vụ giải trí
- Company Type
- CT