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Real Estate sector

HQC

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn - Thương mại - Dịch vụ Địa ốc Hoàng Quân
Bất động sảnCT
2.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.211
Current
2.700
Gap
+167.1%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
59.79%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.46%
x
D/(D+E)
40.21%
=
WACC
10.73%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
11.808
60%DCF Value
4.146
Blended Intrinsic
7.211
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HQC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

59
Fair
Accrual Quality
89
Cash Conversion
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2023

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
0.959
GMI
1.543
AQI
0.992
SGI
1.060
DEPI
0.833
SGAI
0.592
TATA
0.006
LVGI
1.011

HQC exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.1065, indicating a lower likelihood of manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 44.4 suggests significant issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to investors.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1065 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 44.4/100 is low, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and revenue at 0.0/100, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.9587 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive indicator.
  • High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively managing its receivables.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration with the top individual shareholders holding significant stakes, which could lead to governance issues and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor HQC's financial reporting and cash flow management. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
0.73
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.75
Negative
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-19.9%
Volatility
35.7%
Max Drawdown
-42.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
21.90P/E
P/B0.29
P/S23.07
ROE1.4%
ROA0.8%
EPS126.96
BVPS9446.49
Gross Margin22.0%
Net Margin105.4%
D/E0.64
Current Ratio2.17
Rev Growth-57.4%
Profit Growth116.9%
EV/EBITDA210.98
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
576.6M
Charter Capital
5766.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HQC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
trương anh tuấn
Indiv
8.7%
50.0 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hường
Indiv
8.4%
39.8 trieu
Công ty cổ phần Xây dựng và Kinh doanh Nhà Bình Thuận
Inst
5.2%
13.7 trieu
PYN Elite Fund
Inst
4.9%
19.2 trieu
Phan Thị Thanh Ngà
Indiv
4.7%
27.0 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Minh Ngọc
Indiv
4.3%
25.0 trieu
LÊ QUANG HÀO
Indiv
4.3%
16.9 trieu
Trần Thị Ngọc Cơ
Indiv
4.0%
16.0 trieu
Lê Văn Lợi
Indiv
3.6%
17.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Sông Đà 9.06
Inst
0.8%
2.0 trieu
nguyen-thanh-van
Indiv
0.6%
2.8 trieu
Board & Management
Trương Anh Tuấn8.7%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Thái Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Đức Hiếu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Diệu Phương
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Toàn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Yu Trần Đan Phượng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Phong
Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Dự án
Lý Quang Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Tuyển Cử
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hồng Phượng
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Long Triều
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Văn Hảo
Giám đốc Tài chính
Trương Nguyễn Song Vân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính
Nguyễn Tuấn Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Kiều Oanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Hoài
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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