VCT
Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Vinaconex
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 8.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 9.863
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- The closing price is too old for comparison.
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.
Also note
- A release of working capital contributes to cash flow.
- Historical growth has declined.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 17 Aug 2025
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.
Technical details
Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).
Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.
Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 18.3%89th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 1.70×Statutory test met
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- NegativeStatutory test met
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The accounting signals show elevated earnings-quality and solvency concerns. The Beneish M-Score is -0.3729 (92nd percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.93; several component ratios are large (DSRI 4.7620, SGAI 3.9026). The Altman Z-Score is -1.11 (in the distress zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, while statutory tests in the published statements show accumulated losses exceeding paid-in capital and negative owner's equity.
- Beneish M-Score -0.3729 (92nd percentile among Vietnamese peers). This measures a composite likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the company is in the top decile for aggressive accounting in Vietnam and the M-Score increased by +0.93 year-over-year, indicating a change in accounting signals.
- DSRI (Days' Sales Receivables Index) = 4.7620. DSRI measures receivables growth relative to sales and a value well above 1 suggests receivables are growing faster than sales (possible revenue recognition or collectability concerns).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Administrative Index) = 3.9026. SGAI measures growth in SG&A relative to sales; a large value (>1) indicates SG&A is growing faster than sales, which can signal discretionary expense capitalization or shifts in expense recognition.
- AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.2644 and LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.0361. AQI >1 suggests increasing proportion of non-current or potentially less-liquid assets; LVGI >1 indicates rising leverage — both contribute to the M-Score trajectory.
- TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.0619. Negative total accruals can reflect accounting drivers in cash-flow timing; combined with other M-Score components it warrants scrutiny.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 18.3% of total assets (89th percentile). This comprises prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables and is high relative to peers, raising collectability and related-party/prepayment concerns.
- Accumulated losses = 1.70x paid-in capital and owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is negative. These are published-statement facts showing the company has cumulative losses exceeding contributed capital.
- Statutory loss tests: the audited statements show accumulated losses above paid-in capital and negative owner's equity. (Note: UPCoM listing is not subject to the HOSE/HNX automatic-cancellation rule mentioned in Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended.)
- Altman Z-Score = -1.11 (distress zone). The Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy; a negative score indicates financial distress metrics are weak.
- Piotroski F-Score = 3/9. This score summarizes fundamentals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 3 indicates weak operational and financial improvements.
- Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This measures the degree to which earnings are supported by cash flows; a perfect score indicates reported earnings are fully supported by cash-flow-based measures of accruals.
- SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 0.1695 (well below 1). SGI <1 indicates sales did not grow rapidly year-over-year, which reduces one common pressure to manage earnings through revenue recognition.
- DEPI (Depreciation Index) = 1.0071 (close to 1). DEPI near 1 suggests no material change in depreciation policy or estimated useful lives in the period measured.
Ownership is highly concentrated among five individuals: Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương 24.0%, Nguyễn Quang Huy 22.0%, Nguyễn Thành Long 14.8%, Trần Đăng Lợi 9.1%, and Phan Hồng Quang 6.7%. This concentrated, individual-held register implies control is not widely dispersed; there is no separate statement here about director-deal registrations (the provided data are shareholdings).
- Compare the line-items and note for 'Receivables' and 'Other long-term receivables' in the FY2025 audited financial statements to quantify the 18.3% of total assets and identify counterparties and related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile revenue and receivables growth: examine the revenue note and the receivables ageing/sales-reconciliation to assess the DSRI (4.7620) drivers — look for large increases in trade receivables, prepayments, or long-term receivables relative to sales.
- Inspect the equity and accumulated-loss notes: verify the components that produce accumulated losses = 1.70x paid-in capital and the calculation that yields negative owner's equity (excluding minority interest).
- Review the cash-flow statement and the notes supporting accruals to confirm the Accruals quality = 100/100 and to see whether cash flows from operations substantiate reported profits (TATA = -0.0619 and cash conversion 40.0/100).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- —
- P/S
- 4.52
- ROE
- 87.5%
- ROA
- −3.5%
- EPS
- −1.237
- BVPS
- −2.033
- Gross Margin
- −1.1%
- Net Margin
- −65.1%
- D/E
- —
- Current Ratio
- 0.61
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 1.1M
- Charter Capital
- 11.0B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh
- Sub-industry
- Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD
- Company Type
- CT