VCT

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Xây dựng Vinaconex

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT

8.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.738

Current

8.600

Gap

-10.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.50%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

11.50%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default5.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→586.63M

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

586.63M

Growth Rate

5.00%

WACC

11.50%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

7.738

Value Decomposition

50%

Explicit period (50%)Terminal value (50%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VCT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.31

High Risk

DSRI

0.774

GMI

2.303

AQI

1.927

SGI

1.295

DEPI

0.975

SGAI

0.797

TATA

0.005

LVGI

0.994

VCT displays a concerning financial profile with a Beneish M-Score of -1.3069, indicating a lower likelihood of manipulation but still within a range that warrants caution. The earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 54.4/100, with cash conversion at only 39.4/100, indicating potential issues in converting earnings to cash.
SGI of 1.2953 suggests aggressive growth which may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the quality of revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.3069 is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top four shareholders holding over 70% of the company, raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VCT's cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices, and consider engaging with management regarding governance practices to mitigate ownership risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-0.63

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.70

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-61.5%

Volatility

37.8%

Max Drawdown

-62.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

26.93P/E

P/B0.00

P/S0.77

ROE-33.4%

ROA0.9%

EPS319.36

BVPS0.00

Gross Margin14.0%

Net Margin2.8%

D/E-35.91

Current Ratio0.67

Rev Growth29.5%

Profit Growth-2.8%

EV/EBITDA-7.55

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1.1M

Charter Capital

11.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Sub-industry

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VCT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hường

Indiv

24.0%

264.000

nguyen-quang-huy

Indiv

22.0%

242.500

nguyen-thanh-long

Indiv

14.8%

162.848

Trần Đăng Lợi

Indiv

9.1%

100.000

Phan Hồng Quang

Indiv

6.7%

74.000

Nguyễn Duy Khang

Indiv

5.7%

62.848

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam

Inst

5.0%

55.000

Trần Quốc Toàn

Indiv

4.5%

49.400

Đặng Vĩnh Hà

Indiv

1.0%

10.645

Đặng Trần Tuấn

Indiv

1.0%

10.611

Lê Thanh Việt Bách

Indiv

0.7%

7.671

Bạch Văn Cường

Indiv

0.6%

6.660

Board & Management

Vũ Ngọc Minh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Như Sơn

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Tôn Thất Việt Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Như Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đức Thịnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thế Hải

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Đỗ Hoàng Gia

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Chung

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Trang

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thanh Phương

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Kim Oanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VIW98.2%VCC71.1%VC155.1%ND251.1%VAV51.0%S9924.0%BLF2 links HQC24.0%EME24.0%CTA24.0%DBC2 links HBD24.0%

Computed 12/04/2026