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Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư, Thương mại và Dịch vụ - Vinacomin

VietnamCyclicalsHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCông nghiệp nặngUPCOMCT
2.900
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+23.3%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
2.900
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.576

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Công nghiệp nặng→Cyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector “Công nghiệp nặng” maps to the cyclical group.
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Technical details
Why this model

Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.

How it works

Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.

Best for

Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA→41.11B
Fair EV/EBITDA→23.3x
Years of data→7
2
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→2.900
Calibrated value vs last close→+23.3%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
3.576
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Mid-cycle EBITDA41.1 tỷebitda source: own medianyears of data: 7
Feeds valuation:Model inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,7741,9821,7041,4028531,083814567731782927941833
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1745901434377121637347512690
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1615600.130.30.300000.5
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·1,5961,7961,5401,188769923414352390392482443468
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·4536025105721175936914155139118
Net Inventories
·14411967694176274207299356356331240
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·14411967694176274207299356356331240
Other current assets
·0.6612134260.2154134
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·000000000003229
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·33331622322733711116114313572188104121
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.60.60.60.70.60.80.070
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.60.60.60.70.60.80.070
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·33446121411146128195
Tangible fixed assets
·223241013911392024
Leased assets
·0000000012212
Intagible fixed assets
·1111111111111
Investment in properties
·19000000000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·285285183214326731271189944331417
Investments in associate companies
·279279173173294796829336302121
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·4443432663036107302
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−0.3−0.2−0.200−0.100−500−7−5
Other non-current assets
·25283595660.30.71.0198
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·25283595660.30.71.00.921
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2,1072,2981,9271,6301,1911,1939757108668541,1151,045953
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·1,8182,0111,6411,345914929801535693715977898809
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·1,8182,0111,6411,345913929801535691713880773635
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·1,0091,0811,18689258351244339245136825124582
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·2953451981155752120553999464053
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·00.10.40.71.00.040.040.042297125174
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·00.10.40.61.000000.295114168
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·288287286284277265174175173139138139136
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·288287286284277265174175173139138139136
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·265265265265252252162162162126126126126
Other Reserves
·000000000000.080.08
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·151511111111111111111122
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·7587132120.32120.1
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000000.04000
Minority Interest
·0000000000099
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·2,1072,2981,9271,6301,1911,1939757108668541,1151,045953
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·037139230104156745600000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·265265265265252252162162162126126126126
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·22221.00.0100000.0400

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
37
Weak
Accrual Quality
38
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
59
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.60 · 77th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.61
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.848
GMI
1.085
AQI
1.148
SGI
1.048
DEPI
0.949
SGAI
0.936
TATA
0.184
LVGI
0.986

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
−25.272nd pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
21.5%91st pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The company shows multiple accounting signals of weakening earnings quality: a Beneish M-Score of -1.6 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year rise of +0.61, an Altman Z-Score of 1.01 (in the distress zone), and an Earnings-Quality composite of 37.2/100. Key drivers include very poor cash conversion (three-year operating cash flow / net profit = -25.27, 2nd percentile) and a TATA (total accruals) of 0.1843, while receivables appear less suspicious on the Beneish components (DSRI = 0.8483) and the receivables-quality score is 100/100.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = -1.6 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using eight ratios). Although the US cutoff is -1.78, this company sits at the 77th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting) and the M-Score rose by +0.61 year-over-year, indicating a notable upward shift in the modelled aggressive-accounting signal.
  • Cash-conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, three-year) = -25.27 (measures how well reported profits convert into cash). Ranked in the 2nd percentile among Vietnamese non-financials, meaning profits have not been turning into operating cash over the period.
  • TATA (total accruals) = 0.1843 (measures accrual intensity of earnings). A positive and material TATA suggests earnings include substantial accruals rather than cash-based profit recognition.
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.01 (measures distance-to-distress/bankruptcy). This level places the company in the model’s distress zone, indicating financial stress per the Altman formula.
  • Earnings-Quality overall = 37.2/100 with Cash conversion = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 (measures multiple aspects of earnings sustainability). Very low sub-scores for cash conversion and revenue quality raise concerns about the sustainability and cash backing of reported profits.
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 21.5% of total assets (measures non-trade receivables such as prepayments, loans receivable and long-term receivables). At the 91st percentile among Vietnamese peers, this is a high proportion and can reflect significant related-party advances, prepayments or financial receivables that are not normal trade receivables.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables-quality score = 100.0/100 (measures the behaviour and composition of receivables). This suggests reported trade receivables exhibit characteristics consistent with good quality under the applied tests.
  • DSRI = 0.8483 (days sales receivables index, one Beneish input measuring receivables relative to sales). A DSRI below 1 indicates receivables are not growing faster than sales, which reduces a common manipulation signal.
  • SGAI = 0.9365 and DEPI = 0.9491 (selling/general/admin and depreciation indices in the Beneish model). Both below 1 indicate selling/administrative expense growth and depreciation patterns are not unusually high relative to sales, which can be neutral-to-positive for manipulation detection.
  • Piotroski F-Score = 5/9 (measures simple fundamentals: profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency). A middle score indicates mixed but not uniformly poor fundamental signals.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is concentrated: two private institutions hold 35.7% and 24.0%, and a large state-related industrial group (Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Than - Khoáng sản Việt Nam) holds 18.0%. No director-deal registrations were provided. The concentrated institutional and state-group ownership suggests potential for related-party transactions and group-related flows common in Vietnamese corporate groups.

To check in the filings
  • Compare FY2025 schedules for 'Receivables and other amounts due' (note or schedule) to the trade-receivables line to identify the composition of the 21.5% non-trade receivables of total assets (prepayments, loans to related parties, long-term receivables).
  • Reconcile the cash-flow statement’s 'Net cash from operating activities' for FY2023–FY2025 against reported net profit in each year to substantiate the three-year cash-conversion metric of -25.27.
  • Inspect the related-party transactions note and the 'Prepayments to suppliers' line for FY2025 to see whether material prepayments or intra-group balances explain high receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle.
  • Check the auditor’s report and any disclosure on going-concern or post-balance-sheet events, given the Altman Z-Score of 1.01 (distress-zone) and accumulated losses tests showing no statutory accumulated loss in the published statements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.01
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.81
Negative
Composite
51
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✗Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.58×Interest Burden0.63×Op. Margin0.01×Turnover0.97×Leverage7.31=ROE1.4%
Price Risk
Momentum
−36.2%
Volatility
47.7%
Max Drawdown
−42.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
18.58P/E
P/B
0.28
P/S
0.04
ROE
1.5%
ROA
0.2%
EPS
161
BVPS
10.836
Gross Margin
3.2%
Net Margin
0.2%
D/E
3.50
Current Ratio
0.98
Rev Growth
+4.8%
Profit Growth
+19.5%
EV/EBITDA
24.73
Div Yield
3.3%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
26.5M
Charter Capital
265B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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