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Cyclicals sector

KIP

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần K.I.P Việt Nam
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Điện tử & Thiết bị điệnCT
14.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
14.478
Current
14.500
Gap
-0.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA28.40B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.2x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
28.40B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.2x
-
Net Debt
32.66B
=
Equity Value
14.478
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KIP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

80
Good
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
60
Revenue Quality
8

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

1.14
High Risk
DSRI
2.310
GMI
0.871
AQI
7.332
SGI
0.982
DEPI
0.980
SGAI
1.470
TATA
-0.001
LVGI
0.907

KIP exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 1.1399, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 65.4/100, the significant discrepancy in receivables and revenue metrics raises red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 1.1399 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
  • Receivables quality score of 0.0/100 suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and collection practices.
  • SGAI of 1.4702 indicates aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into proportional revenue growth.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality score of 65.4/100 indicates overall decent earnings quality, particularly strong in margin (100.0/100) and accruals (99.4/100).
  • Ownership concentration with Nguyễn Hoa Cương holding 41.6% may align interests with minority shareholders, potentially stabilizing governance.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, particularly with Nguyễn Hoa Cương holding 41.6%, could lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor major shareholders over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on KIP's revenue recognition practices and monitor future earnings reports closely. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of financial stability and transparency emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.83
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.21
Positive
Composite
70
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+26.1%
Volatility
109.9%
Max Drawdown
-46.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
14.72P/E
P/B0.73
P/S0.36
ROE5.9%
ROA4.0%
EPS1103.05
BVPS18849.29
Gross Margin15.2%
Net Margin2.9%
D/E0.42
Current Ratio2.96
Rev Growth-3.2%
Profit Growth66.3%
EV/EBITDA5.79
Div Yield7.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.8M
Charter Capital
98.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Thiết bị điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KIP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Hoa Cương
Indiv
41.6%
4.1 trieu
Công ty TNHH Công Nghệ Cao Grantex Việt Nam
Inst
20.4%
2.0 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Chi
Indiv
16.6%
1.6 trieu
Hoàng Đình Phẩm
Indiv
5.0%
286.000
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VIX
Inst
2.8%
272.000
Lê Xuân Thành
Indiv
2.1%
94.867
Công ty Cổ phần MHC
Inst
1.3%
130.800
Hoàng Thị Kiểm
Indiv
1.2%
55.000
Hoàng Anh Dũng
Indiv
1.0%
100.000
Phùng Đệ
Indiv
1.0%
100.000
Trương Thị Hương Lan
Indiv
0.9%
86.000
Hoàng Nhật Anh
Indiv
0.8%
34.000
nguyen-dinh-hung
Indiv
0.7%
64.508
Phan Thị Thúy
Indiv
0.3%
26.000
Nguyễn Đăng Dũng
Indiv
0.2%
10.000
Bùi Thị Mỹ
Indiv
0.2%
8.750
Lê Trung Lâm
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Lê Thanh Xuân
Indiv
0.1%
5.306
Board & Management
Nguyễn Hoa Cương41.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phùng Đệ1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Anh Dũng1.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đình Hùng0.7%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Thúy0.3%
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng
Phan Thị Minh Nguyệt
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Hữu Hảo
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thị Thư
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Hoàng Thanh Tùng
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Âu An Giang
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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