D11

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc 11

Bất động sảnCT

10.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

55.826

Current

10.700

Gap

+421.7%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

53.01%

Kd(1-t)

6.62%

D/(D+E)

46.99%

WACC

10.32%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

27.057

60%DCF Value

75.005

Blended Intrinsic

55.826

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — D11

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.33

Moderate

DSRI

0.509

GMI

1.400

AQI

1.066

SGI

1.997

DEPI

0.914

SGAI

0.435

TATA

-0.136

LVGI

0.932

D11 exhibits several concerning financial indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.3296, suggesting a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 1.9971 and low AQI of 1.0655 raise questions about revenue growth sustainability and earnings quality.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.3296 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.9971 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about the quality of reported earnings.
Earnings Quality Score of 57.6 indicates moderate quality, with particularly low scores in revenue and margin metrics (0.0/100), signaling potential issues in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion rate is perfect at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership concentration with top shareholders holding significant stakes (Lê Thành Nhơn at 23.7% and Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn at 20.0%) may align interests and provide stability.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure may lead to governance risks, particularly if major shareholders prioritize personal interests over minority shareholders. However, it can also provide a level of stability in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and earnings quality metrics before making investment decisions. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality indicators or clearer revenue sustainability signals.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.47

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.24

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+21.9%

Volatility

43.3%

Max Drawdown

-15.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.17P/E

P/B0.45

P/S0.41

ROE4.5%

ROA2.4%

EPS1051.96

BVPS23856.15

Gross Margin10.8%

Net Margin4.1%

D/E0.81

Current Ratio1.68

Rev Growth99.7%

Profit Growth121.9%

EV/EBITDA1.59

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.2M

Charter Capital

82.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for D11 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Lê Thành Nhơn

Indiv

23.7%

1.9 trieu

Tổng Công ty Địa ốc Sài Gòn

Inst

20.0%

1.6 trieu

Đinh Thị Việt Hương

Indiv

5.0%

220.000

Nguyễn Thùy Dung

Indiv

4.9%

323.000

Nguyễn Khắc Giang

Indiv

3.3%

272.069

Trần Thị Kim Huệ

Indiv

3.0%

243.709

Trần Thanh Bạch

Indiv

2.1%

138.851

Đỗ Vương Tú

Indiv

1.6%

132.157

Trần Ngọc Phương

Indiv

1.1%

75.520

Trần Thị Kim Phượng

Indiv

0.8%

68.883

Đặng Hữu Thành

Indiv

0.8%

49.060

Trần Thị Kim Loan

Indiv

0.7%

59.790

Nguyễn Đức Hiếu

Indiv

0.4%

26.140

Tạ Quang Tự

Indiv

0.4%

25.290

Trần Quốc Hùng

Indiv

0.4%

29.227

Trần Thị Kim Hồng

Indiv

0.3%

28.352

Huỳnh Thị Yến Nhi

Indiv

0.2%

15.996

Phạm Văn Đan Duy

Indiv

0.1%

11.200

Nguyễn Thị Hương Giang

Indiv

0.1%

7.947

Board & Management

Lê Thành Nhơn23.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Khắc Giang3.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Kim Huệ3.0%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Hữu Thành0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Quốc Hùng0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Huỳnh Thị Yến Nhi0.2%

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Hữu Tâm

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Minh Hiền

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Võ Kim Thảo

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Dư Thân Danh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Thắm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

TBR51.0%RCL20.0%ITC20.0%CET10.3%KHS6.0%PLP4.9%DBT4.9%DP14.9%KTT4.2%DTL4.0%AAS3.2%MCP3.1%

Computed 12/04/2026