PSD

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Phân phối Tổng hợp Dầu khí

Bán lẻCT

16.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

73.899

Current

16.700

Gap

+342.5%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

17.56%

Kd(1-t)

6.26%

D/(D+E)

82.44%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.38%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→361.80B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

361.80B

Growth Rate

2.38%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

73.899

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PSD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

5.21

High Risk

DSRI

1.487

GMI

1.082

AQI

16.152

SGI

1.372

DEPI

2.243

SGAI

0.881

TATA

0.129

LVGI

1.067

The analysis of PSD indicates significant red flags regarding potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 5.2087, well above the threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 39.8/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, further raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 5.2087 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 39.8/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and revenue quality at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.
DSRI of 1.4873 and SGI of 1.3716 indicate potential overstatement of receivables and sales growth that may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests that the company is effectively managing its receivables.
Ownership by state and institutional shareholders (76.9% and 37.3%, respectively) may provide some level of stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by state and institutional shareholders may lead to conflicts of interest and reduced transparency, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in PSD, focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices. Monitoring upcoming financial disclosures for improvements in earnings quality metrics is essential.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.15

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.74

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+51.2%

Volatility

39.8%

Max Drawdown

-35.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.05P/E

P/B1.21

P/S0.11

ROE22.1%

ROA3.8%

EPS2761.02

BVPS13827.16

Gross Margin5.2%

Net Margin1.8%

D/E5.52

Current Ratio1.16

Rev Growth37.5%

Profit Growth73.2%

EV/EBITDA28.11

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

51.8M

Charter Capital

518.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bán lẻ

Industry (ICB L3)

Bán lẻ

Sub-industry

Phân phối hàng chuyên dụng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PSD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Tổng hợp Dầu khí

State

76.9%

39.9 trieu

Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam

Inst

37.3%

7.9 trieu

Lê Nguyệt Ánh

Indiv

5.0%

1.5 trieu

Vũ Tiến Dương

Indiv

1.1%

570.200

Nguyễn Mạnh Lân

Indiv

0.5%

237.047

Phan Quang Tuấn Anh

Indiv

0.4%

90.000

Bùi Thị Minh Chiên

Indiv

0.2%

50.700

Tôn Thất Anh Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

50.000

Hồ Minh Trí

Indiv

0.1%

25.400

Lê Thị Chiến

Indiv

0.1%

33.156

Board & Management

Vũ Tiến Dương1.1%

Giám đốc

Nguyễn Mạnh Lân0.5%

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Quang Huy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đào Văn Đại

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thành Chung

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Vũ Quỳnh Như

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Hải Âu

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

VIN95.4%HMG89.4%TNB84.8%TDS65.0%TIS65.0%HMC55.7%VGL51.0%SDK45.0%VDT40.1%KMT38.3%TNS37.3%TRT37.3%

Computed 12/04/2026