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Cyclicals sector

DAG

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Nhựa Đông Á
Hóa chấtCT
1.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
931
Current
1.400
Gap
-33.5%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Equity Value Bvps Floor
BVPS
1.329
x
Discount
70%
=
Floor Value
1.329

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DAG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2023

1
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
2
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2022

-2.37
Moderate
DSRI
0.707
GMI
1.105
AQI
1.251
SGI
1.148
DEPI
0.965
SGAI
1.007
TATA
0.024
LVGI
1.030

DAG's Beneish M-Score of -2.3661 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 52.0/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 52.0/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly low cash conversion at 0.0/100.
  • Receivables quality score of 29.0/100 suggests potential issues in collecting receivables, which could impact cash flow.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.3661 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong margin quality score of 100.0/100 reflects effective cost management and profitability.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership, which may provide stability. However, the presence of multiple individual shareholders could lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DAG's cash flow and receivables management. Consider a cautious approach until improvements in earnings quality metrics are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
-1.10
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-4.00
Negative
Composite
9
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-57.9%
Volatility
40.4%
Max Drawdown
-73.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2023
-0.14P/E
P/B1.05
P/S0.07
ROE-158.2%
ROA-33.5%
EPS-10059.84
BVPS1329.42
Gross Margin-30.6%
Net Margin-49.9%
D/E16.99
Current Ratio0.92
Rev Growth-46.5%
Profit Growth-8311.2%
EV/EBITDA-2.80
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
60.3M
Charter Capital
603.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DAG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Hùng Phát
Inst
21.4%
12.7 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển NBH
Inst
10.1%
6.1 trieu
Nguyễn Bá Hùng
Indiv
6.0%
3.6 trieu
Dương Thị Thu Hương
Indiv
6.0%
3.1 trieu
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Dịch Vụ Hùng Phát
Inst
5.0%
3.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB
Inst
5.0%
2.0 trieu
Công ty TNHH Thương mại và Sản xuất Tam Sơn
Inst
3.4%
1.4 trieu
Japan Vietnam Growth Fund LP
Inst
1.4%
550.000
Phạm Gia Bảo
Indiv
0.5%
278.107
TRẦN THỊ LÊ HẢI
Indiv
0.5%
319.823
Trần Việt Thắng
Indiv
0.4%
250.000
Ngô Mạnh Quân
Indiv
0.2%
104.701
Nguyễn Văn Quang
Indiv
0.2%
68.500
ĐƯỜNG NGỌC DIỆU
Indiv
0.2%
103.000
Nguyễn Phú Thắng
Indiv
0.1%
57.200
Board & Management
NGUYỄN BÁ HÙNG6.0%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Thị Thanh Thủy
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Hoàng Hải
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị
Bùi Văn Huân
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Thị Thúy Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thẩm Châu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ito Junichi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thế Hoàng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vương Trí Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Thanh Thủy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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