Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 5.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 6.740
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
Also note
- Net cash exceeds the market value of the company; the step from enterprise value to equity needs a check.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 3 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- −0.3019th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.0%2nd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.
The company shows several accounting signals consistent with aggressive reporting relative to Vietnamese peers: a Beneish M-Score of 1.6984 (97th percentile versus Vietnam peers) with a year-over-year rise of +1.40. Earnings-quality metrics are poor (Earnings Quality 8.6/100) driven by very low cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100). Offsetting those concerns, the Altman Z-Score is 7.66 (well into the 'safe' bankruptcy-distance zone) and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral).
- Beneish M-Score 1.6984 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using an 8-variable model) — the company ranks in the 97th percentile among Vietnamese peers (higher = more aggressive accounting among Vietnam peers) and the M-Score increased by +1.40 year-over-year (the trajectory signal).
- DSRI = 7.5169 (Days' Sales Receivables Index; measures receivables relative to sales and signals a large increase in receivables relative to revenue recognition).
- SGAI = 10.0000 (Sales, General & Administrative expenses Index; measures growth in SG&A relative to sales — an extreme value indicating SG&A grew much faster than revenue).
- TATA = 0.2156 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; measures accrual-based component of earnings — positive and non-trivial accruals relative to assets).
- LVGI = 0.6830 (Leverage Growth Index; measures growth in leverage year-over-year — indicates a sizeable increase in leverage).
- Earnings Quality overall 8.6/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.0/100 (measures showing profit is not being converted into cash and receivables/prepayments are poor-quality drivers of reported earnings).
- Vietnamese cash-conversion check: 3-year operating cash flow / net profit = -0.30 (18th percentile among VN non-financials; low value indicates profits have not converted into operating cash over three years).
- Director-deal registrations: 1 sale registration (period 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30) and 0 purchase registrations — these are registered intentions with the exchange, not executed trades.
- Altman Z-Score = 7.66 (measures distance to financial distress/bankruptcy; this value places the company well inside the 'safe' zone).
- Piotroski F-Score = 4/9 (measures nine accounting-based fundamentals; a neutral score rather than strongly negative).
- AQI = 1.0000 (Asset Quality Index; measures change in the proportion of non-current assets — a value of 1.00 indicates no year-over-year deterioration by this index).
- DEPI = 0.8602 (Depreciation Index; measures change in depreciation policies relative to depreciation expense — below 1 can indicate higher depreciation expense or lower estimated remaining life, i.e., not signaling lower depreciation), and GMI = 0.0919 (Gross Margin Index; below 1 implies gross margins have not deteriorated per the index).
Ownership is highly concentrated among five individuals: Bùi Việt Hoài 26.6%, Trương Quang Long Triều 24.4%, Bùi Tuấn Anh 16.5%, Nguyễn Thị Hoàng Oanh 15.0%, and Trương Quang Anh Nguyên 10.0%. Such concentration means control rests with a small group of related or aligned shareholders. Director-deal items reported are registrations (1 sale registration in the year), which are exchange-disclosed intentions rather than completed trades.
- Compare FY2025 operating cash flow in the cash-flow statement with parent net profit in the income statement and reconcile the components of non-cash working-capital movement (notes to cash flows) to explain the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of -0.30.
- Inspect the trade receivables, prepayments and loans-receivable notes (and the related-party transaction schedules) to verify the composition that produces the receivables-outside-the-trade-cycle metric at 0.0% of total assets.
- Review the notes and schedules for related-party transactions, advances to/from related parties and other receivables/payables to assess whether SG&A growth (SGAI = 10.0000) or accruals (TATA = 0.2156) relate to group or intra-group reallocations.
- Locate the auditor’s report and the statutory statement lines that would show accumulated losses or parent net loss — confirm that accumulated losses are not reported and that parent profit shows 0 consecutive years of net loss up to FY2025, as stated.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.50
- P/S
- 161.34
- ROE
- 1.5%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- EPS
- 253
- BVPS
- 10.514
- Gross Margin
- 73.2%
- Net Margin
- 771.7%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 12.25
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- 226.4%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 5.0M
- Charter Capital
- 49.8B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Vận tải
- Sub-industry
- Vận tải Thủy
- Company Type
- CT