SSG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Biển Hải Âu

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

8.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

71.461

Current

8.500

Gap

+500.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

85.38%

Kd(1-t)

6.28%

D/(D+E)

14.62%

WACC

11.33%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

40.831

50%DCF Value

102.091

Blended Intrinsic

71.461

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SSG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

0.30

High Risk

DSRI

0.188

GMI

3.805

AQI

0.000

SGI

0.754

DEPI

0.993

SGAI

1.297

TATA

0.557

LVGI

0.649

SSG exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 0.3001, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality metrics are alarmingly low, with an Earnings Quality Score of 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues in revenue recognition and cash conversion.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 0.3001 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 0.0/100 reflects extremely poor earnings quality, with all components (accrual, cash conversion, margin, revenue) scoring 0.0.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding 86.5% of the shares, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest. This level of concentration may hinder independent oversight and exacerbate risks of management self-dealing.

Recommendation

Given the high risk of earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality, it is advisable to avoid investment in SSG until there is a clear improvement in financial transparency and governance practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

3.35

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.75

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-27.7%

Volatility

52.9%

Max Drawdown

-55.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

0.66P/E

P/B0.36

P/S1.68

ROE73.4%

ROA65.1%

EPS12169.46

BVPS22176.99

Gross Margin6.7%

Net Margin254.3%

D/E0.10

Current Ratio9.54

Rev Growth-24.6%

Profit Growth1157.6%

EV/EBITDA44.95

Div Yield149.4%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.0M

Charter Capital

50.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SSG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bùi Việt Hoài

Indiv

26.6%

1.3 trieu

Trương Quang Long Triều

Indiv

24.4%

1.2 trieu

Bùi Tuấn Anh

Indiv

16.5%

823.000

Trương Quang Anh Nguyên

Indiv

10.0%

500.000

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải biển và Hợp tác lao động Quốc Tế

Inst

9.0%

450.000

Tổng công ty Bảo Việt Nhân thọ

Inst

8.8%

441.000

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Tín Phát

Inst

8.8%

440.900

Nguyễn Hữu Hoàn

Indiv

3.1%

154.180

Nguyễn Minh Lộc

Indiv

2.3%

115.200

Chu Thị Hải Phượng

Indiv

1.5%

76.300

Đặng Quốc Hùng

Indiv

1.0%

48.000

Trần Văn Tôn

Indiv

0.7%

35.200

Lê Hải Phong

Indiv

0.4%

21.500

Nguyễn Xuân Thủy

Indiv

0.3%

16.000

Hoàng Duy Lâm

Indiv

0.3%

13.300

Lê Thanh Hà

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Đặng Hồng Trường

Indiv

0.1%

5.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Minh Lộc2.3%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thanh Hà0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Đặng Hồng Trường0.1%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Trần Ngọc Sơn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Anh Thư

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thanh Phúc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Phương Liên

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hạnh

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đức Mạnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

VCA65.0%VOS26.6%PVE16.5%VXP16.5%TDB14.1%MHC9.0%PAC8.8%APS8.8%VSG8.8%UPS6.8%TNG5.0%HHG3.1%

Computed 12/04/2026