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Consumer sector

MSH

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần May Sông Hồng
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT
37.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
61.305
Current
37.800
Gap
+62.2%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
47.17%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.49%
x
D/(D+E)
52.83%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.95%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF398.53B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
398.53B
Growth Rate
6.95%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
61.305
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MSH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

56
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
73
Receivables
42
Margin Stability
40
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.78
Low Risk
DSRI
0.986
GMI
0.744
AQI
0.214
SGI
1.049
DEPI
1.724
SGAI
1.146
TATA
0.012
LVGI
0.968

MSH exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7761, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 56.4 suggests potential concerns, particularly with revenue recognition and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 56.4 indicates moderate risk, particularly with revenue recognition scoring 0.0/100, which raises concerns about the reliability of reported revenues.
  • The SGI of 1.0488 suggests that sales growth is outpacing the growth of receivables, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.7761 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High accrual quality score of 95.1/100 indicates strong cash flow management relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The concentration of ownership among a few individuals (totaling 68.8%) may pose risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially leading to conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of ownership concentration on corporate governance. A deeper analysis of cash flow statements is recommended to assess sustainability.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.20
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.01
Negative
Composite
58
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+4.9%
Volatility
34.3%
Max Drawdown
-36.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.76P/E
P/B2.16
P/S0.75
ROE33.0%
ROA13.3%
EPS5436.13
BVPS17011.52
Gross Margin21.1%
Net Margin11.0%
D/E1.12
Current Ratio1.80
Rev Growth4.9%
Profit Growth48.3%
EV/EBITDA5.67
Div Yield10.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
112.5M
Charter Capital
1125.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng May mặc
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MSH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bùi Đức Thịnh
Indiv
23.9%
26.9 trieu
Phạm Thành Dương
Indiv
11.4%
2.6 trieu
Phạm Văn Dương
Indiv
11.4%
2.6 trieu
Bùi Việt Quang
Indiv
11.3%
12.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán FPT
Inst
10.7%
12.0 trieu
Bùi Thu Hà
Indiv
7.7%
8.7 trieu
Bùi Hải Yến
Indiv
5.0%
1.1 trieu
Phạm Thị Sông Ngân
Indiv
4.9%
3.7 trieu
Vũ Mạnh Tường
Indiv
2.0%
2.3 trieu
Nguyễn Mạnh Tường
Indiv
1.9%
2.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Đào
Indiv
0.9%
430.000
Quỹ Đầu tư Lợi Thế Cạnh Tranh Bền Vững SSI
Inst
0.6%
309.600
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hường
Indiv
0.6%
277.000
Lê Thị Hồng Yến
Indiv
0.4%
510.300
Triệu Công Trứ
Indiv
0.2%
89.920
Lê Anh Thái
Indiv
0.1%
135.000
Board & Management
Bùi Đức Thịnh23.9%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Dương11.4%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Việt Quang11.3%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Mạnh Tường1.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Hồng Yến0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc Tài chính
Lê Văn Quang
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Thị Ninh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Bernard Szeto W.K
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Đinh Tràng Thi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thị Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Chí Dũng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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