NLG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Nam Long

Bất động sảnCT

29.350

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

28.881

Current

29.350

Gap

-1.6%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

48.05%

Kd(1-t)

6.36%

D/(D+E)

51.95%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.34%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

32.628

60%DCF Value

26.383

Blended Intrinsic

28.881

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NLG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.61

Elevated

DSRI

0.862

GMI

1.017

AQI

3.134

SGI

0.784

DEPI

0.801

SGAI

1.182

TATA

0.068

LVGI

0.851

NLG exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly its earnings quality score of 24.8/100, indicating significant issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition. Despite a Beneish M-Score of -1.6131, which suggests a lower likelihood of manipulation, the overall earnings quality metrics raise red flags about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 24.8/100, indicating poor earnings quality and potential issues with revenue recognition.
Cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggesting that the company is not effectively converting its earnings into cash.
Receivables score of 3.1/100, indicating potential issues with collectability of receivables.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -1.6131 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 0.8619 indicates that the company is managing its inventory levels effectively relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a significant concentration of shares among a few individuals and institutions, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The largest shareholder holds only 7.9%, indicating a lack of strong control.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor NLG's earnings quality and cash flow metrics before making investment decisions. A deeper analysis into the company's revenue recognition practices and cash management strategies is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.88

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.10

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.9%

Volatility

42.7%

Max Drawdown

-37.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

20.06P/E

P/B1.11

P/S2.49

ROE6.3%

ROA2.5%

EPS1445.84

BVPS26102.44

Gross Margin41.8%

Net Margin12.4%

D/E0.79

Current Ratio2.98

Rev Growth-21.6%

Profit Growth35.4%

EV/EBITDA11.44

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

485.1M

Charter Capital

4851.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NLG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Xuân Quang

Indiv

7.9%

38.2 trieu

Ibeworth Pte. Ltd.

Inst

7.6%

29.4 trieu

Fiera Capital (UK) Limited as Investment Manager for various funds

Inst

5.7%

27.6 trieu

Công ty Tài Chính Quốc Tế

Inst

4.9%

7.0 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

4.5%

15.5 trieu

Ctcp Đầu Tư Thái Bình

Inst

4.5%

17.2 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Thái Bình

Inst

4.4%

17.0 trieu

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

4.3%

16.7 trieu

Trần Thanh Phong

Indiv

4.3%

20.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn Đầu tư Hướng Việt

Inst

4.2%

6.0 trieu

Matthews Emerging Asia Fund

Inst

3.6%

8.7 trieu

Nam Viet Limited

Inst

3.4%

5.4 trieu

Lâm Xuân Hoàng Lan

Indiv

3.3%

4.7 trieu

Swift Current Offshore Ltd.

Inst

2.6%

3.6 trieu

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

2.1%

8.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Bích Ngọc

Indiv

2.1%

8.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Và Xây Dựng Tây Hồ

Inst

2.1%

2.9 trieu

asia value investment limited

Inst

2.0%

9.9 trieu

nguyen-thi-huong

Indiv

1.7%

2.4 trieu

Mekong Holdings Inc

Inst

1.6%

2.3 trieu

swiftcurrent partners, l.p

Inst

1.6%

2.3 trieu

Nguyễn Hiệp

Indiv

1.4%

6.8 trieu

Nguyễn Nam

Indiv

1.4%

6.8 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

1.3%

4.9 trieu

VOF Investment Limited

Inst

1.2%

5.7 trieu

Cao Tấn Thạch

Indiv

0.9%

4.4 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

0.9%

3.4 trieu

Matthews Asia Small Companies Fund

Inst

0.7%

1.6 trieu

Preston Pacific Limited

Inst

0.7%

3.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Inst

0.7%

1.0 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.5%

1.9 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Kinh tế hiện đại VinaCapital

Inst

0.5%

2.2 trieu

Chu Chee Kwang

Indiv

0.4%

1.1 trieu

Cao Duy Thông

Indiv

0.4%

1.8 trieu

Đỗ Ngọc Minh

Indiv

0.3%

1.1 trieu

Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited

Inst

0.3%

1.1 trieu

Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited

Inst

0.3%

1.3 trieu

Vietnam Ventures Limited

Inst

0.2%

1.0 trieu

Quỹ Đầu tư Bất động sản Techcom Việt Nam

Inst

0.2%

495.737

Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Hưng Thịnh Vinacapital

Inst

0.2%

942.598

Ngô Thị Ngọc Liễu

Indiv

0.2%

700.000

Châu Quang Phúc

Indiv

0.1%

514.348

Matthews Asia ESG Fund

Inst

0.1%

307.423

Trần Xuân Ngọc

Indiv

0.1%

484.839

Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust

Inst

0.1%

468.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Xuân Quang7.9%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thanh Phong4.3%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Cao Tấn Thạch0.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Châu Quang Phúc0.1%

Giám đốc Tài chính

Trần Xuân Ngọc0.1%

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thanh Sơn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Châu Ngọc Ánh Nguyệt

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Chad Ryan Ovel

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quang Đức

Kế toán trưởng

Kenneth Michael Atkinson

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Đình Huy

Giám đốc đầu tư

Joseph Low Kar Yew

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Thuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Ziang Tony Ngo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngian Siew Siong

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

HPO24.4%VGL21.4%STK20.2%NNC15.9%SDP12.5%CDG12.4%ASM11.2%VCM11.1%THS10.8%WCS2 links HDG4 links MIG9.9%

Computed 12/04/2026