VCM

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần BV Life

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT

7.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.451

Current

7.900

Gap

+45.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→4.64B

Fair EV/EBITDA→11.1x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

4.64B

Fair EV/EBITDA

11.1x

Net Debt

-17.33B

Equity Value

11.451

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VCM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

2.93

High Risk

DSRI

0.498

GMI

0.632

AQI

0.942

SGI

3.036

DEPI

15.971

SGAI

0.467

TATA

0.506

LVGI

0.733

The Beneish M-Score of 2.9279 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 25.7/100, this raises significant concerns about the integrity of VCM's financial reporting.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 2.9279 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 25.7/100, with an accrual score of 0.0/100, suggests poor earnings quality and potential overstatement of earnings.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding over 63% of shares, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering VCM, particularly focusing on financial transparency and governance practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.16

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.30

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+35.7%

Volatility

69.1%

Max Drawdown

-49.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

3.29P/E

P/B0.64

P/S0.58

ROE26.8%

ROA16.4%

EPS2610.58

BVPS13513.83

Gross Margin25.8%

Net Margin17.6%

D/E0.21

Current Ratio6.02

Rev Growth203.6%

Profit Growth780.4%

EV/EBITDA2.17

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.0M

Charter Capital

60.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Công nghiệp nặng

Sub-industry

Máy công nghiệp

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VCM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bùi Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

14.3%

1.7 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Bách Việt

Inst

14.0%

1.7 trieu

Trần Quang Vũ

Indiv

13.5%

1.6 trieu

nguyen-thanh-huong

Indiv

11.1%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Hà Giang

Indiv

10.0%

1.2 trieu

Trần Hải Yến

Indiv

4.2%

505.000

Phan Phương Nguyên

Indiv

2.6%

78.100

Nguyễn Văn Hiệp

Indiv

2.3%

70.000

Nguyễn Thị Thúy Thiệp

Indiv

0.8%

100.000

Trương Văn Đại

Indiv

0.5%

15.000

Trần Duy Thành

Indiv

0.2%

6.200

Nguyễn Thị Oanh

Indiv

0.1%

3.500

Vũ Ngọc Kiên

Indiv

0.1%

3.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Hiệp2.3%

Tổng Giám đốc

Trương Văn Đại0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Hải Yến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Quốc Huy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Viết Cường

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Minh Phú

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Việt Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Thân Thế Hà

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hồng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

NGUYỄN TIẾN ĐẠT

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Chu Quang Minh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Khắc Hải

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

BVL63.4%LKW16.8%VGT14.3%NBP14.3%CKG13.5%CLM11.1%HLD11.1%PC111.1%NLG11.1%PLP4.7%ITD4.2%HUT4.2%

Computed 12/04/2026