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VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
12.500
VND · Last close

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
12.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
14.524

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.50%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→750
Payout ratio→94.1%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→12.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
14.524
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share750dps source: eventspayout ratio: 94.10
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·9512814517519222423990756315857
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·86710694228334912942
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·7410512212616218317745346148
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·4106251021131055124
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·14115150.20.90.50.20.20.5
Net Inventories
·766755243333
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·766755243333
Other current assets
·11.04795540.10.20.10.3
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·382367371326327312321302321337349320
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.822000000000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·0.822000000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·311332321306305307274294312329334309
Tangible fixed assets
·311332321306305307274293311328333309
Intagible fixed assets
·0.040.090.20.080.030.060.40.60.80.50.60.2
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·050400000002
Other non-current assets
·212216653355578
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·212215553355578
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·477495516500518535561392395400507377
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·4749787892107132131146157271179
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·271939272829402728261137
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·1010121313131313131350
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0.080.20.20.20.10.70.020.020.030.000.020
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·20304051657891105118131158171
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·20304051657891000158171
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·430446438422426428429261250243236199
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·430446438422426428429261250243236188
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·384384384384384384384236236236236181
Other Reserves
·000000000002
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·15151517151515920.402
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·233931131820221612703
Budget sources and other funds
·0000000000011
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·477495516500518535561392395400507377
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·384384384384384384384236236236236181
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
67
Fair
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
36
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Remainder
M −2.95 · 16th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▼ −0.94
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.380
GMI
1.077
AQI
2.094
SGI
0.979
DEPI
0.942
SGAI
1.366
TATA
−0.063
LVGI
0.990

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.6668th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.4%22nd pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.91
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.21
Positive
Composite
29
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.89×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.20×Turnover0.28×Leverage1.11=ROE5.5%
Price Risk
Momentum
+32.0%
Volatility
80.5%
Max Drawdown
−31.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
20.14P/E
P/B
1.11
P/S
3.59
ROE
5.4%
ROA
4.9%
EPS
621
BVPS
11.217
Gross Margin
44.8%
Net Margin
17.8%
D/E
0.07
Current Ratio
3.51
Rev Growth
−2.1%
Profit Growth
−32.3%
EV/EBITDA
7.81
Div Yield
8.0%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
38.4M
Charter Capital
384B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a stock research tool. Its results are calculated from public financial data with published formulas. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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