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Utilities sector

NQB

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Quảng Bình
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
10.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.860
Current
10.100
Gap
-32.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.07%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS350
Payout ratio44.3%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
350
Base Growth
3.07%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
6.860
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NQB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

82
Good
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
75
Revenue Quality
62

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2016

-2.38
Moderate
DSRI
1.015
GMI
0.924
AQI
0.767
SGI
1.330
DEPI
0.737
SGAI
1.140
TATA
-0.030
LVGI
0.611

NQB shows signs of potential earnings manipulation with a Beneish M-Score of -2.3756, indicating a risk of financial misrepresentation. However, the earnings quality score of 57.6 suggests a reasonable level of cash conversion and accrual quality, although revenue and margin metrics are concerning.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.3756, indicating potential manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • SGI of 1.3301 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
  • Earnings quality margin and revenue scores are both at 0.0/100, indicating significant concerns about the quality of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 57.6/100 with a cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
  • Strong institutional ownership with 93.1% held by state and institutional investors, suggesting stability in governance.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership (52.1% state ownership) may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability, but it also provides a degree of stability.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices, and consider monitoring the company's financial disclosures closely for any signs of manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.85
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.43
Negative
Composite
42
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-38.0%
Volatility
47.3%
Max Drawdown
-38.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.45P/E
P/B0.89
P/S1.23
ROE6.7%
ROA5.2%
EPS750.95
BVPS11310.91
Gross Margin20.2%
Net Margin9.2%
D/E0.27
Current Ratio0.97
Rev Growth5.8%
Profit Growth-11.9%
EV/EBITDA4.62
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
17.2M
Charter Capital
172.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NQB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Quảng Bình
State
52.1%
9.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần - Tổng công ty Nước - Môi trường Bình Dương
Inst
41.0%
7.1 trieu
Board & Management
Lê Anh Dũng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Giám đốc
Trần Văn Ban
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Nghĩa
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đức Vũ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Minh Chương
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Văn Tiến
Phó Giám đốc
Ngô Thành Chung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Dũng
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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