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Utilities sector

DNW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Đồng Nai
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
31.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
32.746
Current
31.700
Gap
+3.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.28%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.600
Payout ratio62.1%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.600
Base Growth
4.28%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
32.746
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DNW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
70
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
61
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.73
Low Risk
DSRI
1.051
GMI
1.034
AQI
0.987
SGI
1.020
DEPI
0.985
SGAI
0.991
TATA
-0.076
LVGI
0.910

DNW exhibits signs of potential earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -2.7277, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 66.1 suggests reasonable performance, the zero score in revenue quality raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.7277 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality score of 0.0/100 for revenue suggests significant issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
  • Strong institutional ownership with 64.0% held by Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp, suggesting stability.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among institutional investors (83.1% combined) may lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor institutional interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor DNW's revenue recognition practices and consider engaging with management regarding transparency. A cautious approach is advised given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.66
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.06
Positive
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.9%
Volatility
37.1%
Max Drawdown
-16.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.88P/E
P/B1.71
P/S3.09
ROE11.6%
ROA7.8%
EPS2268.31
BVPS19707.06
Gross Margin37.1%
Net Margin20.8%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio1.95
Rev Growth2.0%
Profit Growth-18.5%
EV/EBITDA7.31
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
120.0M
Charter Capital
1200.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DNW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp
Inst
64.0%
76.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần - Tổng công ty Nước - Môi trường Bình Dương
Inst
19.0%
22.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nước Thủ Dầu Một
Inst
12.1%
14.5 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Thiện
Indiv
1.0%
1.2 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Thiền1.0%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thu Oanh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Cao Hà
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Công Hiếu
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Hiển
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Hồng
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn An Quốc
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Văn Chất
Phó Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trung Chiến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Văn Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tăng Tố Vân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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