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Utilities sector

VLW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Vĩnh Long
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
36.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
29.810
Current
36.900
Gap
-19.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.74%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.433
Payout ratio55.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.433
Base Growth
4.74%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
29.810
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VLW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

75
Good
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
71
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
66
Revenue Quality
42

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.07
Low Risk
DSRI
0.265
GMI
1.010
AQI
1.797
SGI
1.044
DEPI
0.984
SGAI
0.960
TATA
-0.041
LVGI
1.280

VLW exhibits a low risk of earnings manipulation as indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -3.0672, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's strong earnings quality score of 83.0/100, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, further supports the integrity of its financial reporting.

Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.0672 indicates low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 83.0/100, with perfect cash conversion and receivables metrics.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the state holding 51.0%, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest or influence on corporate governance. However, the presence of institutional investors also adds a layer of oversight.

Recommendation

Continue monitoring VLW for any changes in earnings quality metrics or shifts in ownership structure. Given the current assessment, it may be a stable investment opportunity in the Vietnamese market.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.43
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.47
Positive
Composite
68
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+47.6%
Volatility
74.6%
Max Drawdown
-29.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.38P/E
P/B2.00
P/S4.96
ROE14.2%
ROA11.1%
EPS2376.68
BVPS17082.96
Gross Margin65.5%
Net Margin34.5%
D/E0.27
Current Ratio4.05
Rev Growth2.0%
Profit Growth-6.0%
EV/EBITDA11.60
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
28.9M
Charter Capital
289.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VLW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Vĩnh Long
State
51.0%
14.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần - Tổng công ty Nước - Môi trường Bình Dương
Inst
33.7%
9.7 trieu
Công ty CP Nước Và Môi Trường Đồng Bằng
Inst
5.0%
1.4 trieu
Đặng Tấn Chiến
Indiv
1.1%
322.822
Nguyễn Tấn Phát
Indiv
0.2%
57.400
Trần Văn Bản
Indiv
0.2%
56.100
Board & Management
Đặng Tấn Chiến1.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tấn Phát0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Thiện Ngọc Minh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Quyến
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Thắng
Kế toán trưởng/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Quốc Đạt
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Nhung
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trường Ảnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Thanh Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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