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Cyclicals sector

SBR

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Sông Bé
Hóa chấtCT
8.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
8.433
Current
8.300
Gap
+1.6%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA40.60B
Fair EV/EBITDA16.4x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
40.60B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
16.4x
-
Net Debt
-20.43B
=
Equity Value
8.433
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SBR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

84
Good
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
67
Revenue Quality
25

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-2.07
Moderate
DSRI
0.141
GMI
0.788
AQI
0.743
SGI
0.720
DEPI
1.023
SGAI
1.313
TATA
0.355
LVGI
0.823

The forensic analysis of SBR reveals significant concerns regarding earnings quality and potential financial manipulation. With a Beneish M-Score of -2.0687, well below the manipulation threshold, and an earnings quality score of only 6.3/100, the company exhibits alarming signs of financial distress.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.0687 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 6.3/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in cash flow management.
  • Significant reliance on receivables with an accrual score of only 6.0/100, indicating potential overstatement of revenue.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.1411 indicates a potential decrease in inventory relative to sales, which may suggest improved inventory management.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming ownership by Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bình Phước at 97.4% presents a risk of governance issues and lack of accountability, limiting minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding SBR until clearer signs of financial stability and improved earnings quality are evident. A thorough review of management practices and financial disclosures is essential.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.43
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.07
Positive
Composite
65
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+5.5%
Volatility
73.4%
Max Drawdown
-25.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
17.64P/E
P/B0.83
P/S2.07
ROE4.7%
ROA3.6%
EPS470.61
BVPS10000.00
Gross Margin9.4%
Net Margin11.7%
D/E0.32
Current Ratio2.35
Rev Growth21.5%
Profit Growth-18.3%
EV/EBITDA13.76
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
81.4M
Charter Capital
814.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SBR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bình Phước
Indiv
97.4%
79.2 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Đông Dần
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Quang Vĩnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Thái Công Cần
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trường Vỹ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Phước
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Ngọc Liên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Từ Xuân Lâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Trung Dũng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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