SIP

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sài Gòn VRG

Bất động sảnCT

58.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

54.961

Current

58.000

Gap

-5.2%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

19.43%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

80.57%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.73%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

11.862

60%DCF Value

83.693

Blended Intrinsic

54.961

Value Decomposition

32%

68%

Explicit period (32%)Terminal value (68%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SIP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.14

Moderate

DSRI

1.627

GMI

0.884

AQI

0.861

SGI

1.103

DEPI

0.929

SGAI

1.343

TATA

-0.032

LVGI

0.988

SIP exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1422, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the DSRI of 1.6274 and SGAI of 1.3430 raise concerns about potential revenue recognition issues and aggressive expense growth.

Red Flags

DSRI of 1.6274 suggests potential issues with inventory management, indicating that the company may be overestimating sales relative to inventory growth.
SGAI of 1.3430 indicates that sales growth is outpacing general and administrative expenses, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 94.7/100 reflects strong earnings quality, particularly with a cash conversion score of 100.0/100, indicating robust cash flow generation.
Beneish M-Score of -2.1422 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant institutional presence, with the largest shareholder holding 19.8%. However, the concentration of individual shareholders could lead to potential governance risks.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's revenue recognition practices closely, particularly given the elevated DSRI and SGAI. Consider a cautious investment approach while leveraging the strong earnings quality metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.37

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.41

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-16.2%

Volatility

31.7%

Max Drawdown

-39.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.36P/E

P/B2.71

P/S1.63

ROE28.5%

ROA5.0%

EPS5600.66

BVPS21418.78

Gross Margin15.9%

Net Margin15.8%

D/E3.91

Current Ratio2.85

Rev Growth10.3%

Profit Growth15.9%

EV/EBITDA11.09

Div Yield1.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

242.1M

Charter Capital

2421.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SIP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Phát Triển Đô Thị An Lộc

Inst

19.8%

41.7 trieu

Trần Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

9.6%

7.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Khu Công nghiệp Nam Tân Uyên

Inst

9.0%

18.9 trieu

Lư Thanh Nhã

Indiv

7.2%

5.7 trieu

Trần Ngọc Xuân Trang

Indiv

4.9%

9.0 trieu

Phạm Hồng Hải

Indiv

2.2%

5.3 trieu

Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh

Indiv

2.2%

5.2 trieu

Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam

Inst

1.8%

1.4 trieu

nguyen-thanh-tung

Indiv

1.4%

1.1 trieu

Trần Lê An

Indiv

0.9%

2.3 trieu

Lê Hồng Cẩm

Indiv

0.7%

1.7 trieu

Trần Như Hùng

Indiv

0.6%

417.100

Phan Quốc Thắng

Indiv

0.4%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Trường Khôi

Indiv

0.4%

313.100

Trần Ngọc Vân

Indiv

0.4%

1.1 trieu

Bạch Vân Nhạn

Indiv

0.3%

755.104

Đặng Ánh Hào

Indiv

0.3%

655.432

Phạm Văn Đông

Indiv

0.3%

639.985

Huỳnh Như Ngọc

Indiv

0.2%

178.365

Trần Ngọc Nhân

Indiv

0.2%

116.000

Board & Management

Trần Mạnh Hùng9.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lư Thanh Nhã7.2%

Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Hồng Hải2.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Tùng1.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Quốc Thắng0.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Ngọc Vân0.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bạch Vân Nhạn0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Đặng Ánh Hào0.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Văn Đông0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Huỳnh Như Ngọc0.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thành Đạt

Kế toán trưởng/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Huỳnh Hữu Tín

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Tiến Luận

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

RTB98.5%BRR97.5%MDF84.9%RBC69.1%PHR66.6%GER64.4%TRC60.0%DPR55.2%HRC2 links BRC48.9%MH337.8%NTC20.4%

Computed 12/04/2026