Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 4.600
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 5.672
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 14 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.3%18th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- 0.43×
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 1
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company's Beneish M-Score is 1.9996 (97th percentile versus Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +3.31), indicating its accounting profile is more aggressive than most Vietnamese-listed peers and has shifted materially this year. Several forensic indicators point to weak operating fundamentals (Piotroski F-Score 2/9) and low earnings quality (overall EQ Score 30/100) while some accrual metrics (TATA = -0.0296; accruals quality 100/100) and low receivables outside the trade cycle (0.3% of assets) are countervailing signals.
- Beneish M-Score 1.9996 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation via an eight-variable model) — at the 97th percentile among Vietnamese peers, implying the company's accounting profile is unusually aggressive relative to the Vietnamese sample.
- Year-over-year M-Score change +3.31 (measures the change in the M-Score from the prior year) — a large upward move that signals the accounting profile changed materially this year.
- DSRI = 1.8359 (Days Sales Receivable Index; measures receivables growth relative to sales) — a value well above 1 suggests receivables grew faster than sales, which can indicate revenue recognition pressure or slower collections.
- GMI = 2.2368 (Gross Margin Index; deterioration in gross margin) — >1 indicates gross margins worsened year-over-year, a pressure often associated with weaker earnings quality.
- AQI = 9.9365 (asset quality index; higher values reflect asset reclassification or rising non-current assets relative to sales) — a very large value implying substantial shifts in asset composition (e.g., capitalisation, long-term receivables, or other non-current items) relative to sales.
- SGI = 0.6035 (sales growth index; <1 indicates sales declined) — falling sales can increase incentives to manage earnings; here SGI below 1 shows contraction in top-line.
- SGAI = 1.2035 (sales, general & admin index; rising SGA relative to sales) — >1 implies SGA expenses increased relative to sales, pressuring margins and potentially motivating margin management.
- LVGI = 1.0781 (leverage index; >1 indicates rising leverage) — indicates an increase in leverage year-over-year, which can create financial pressure.
- Earnings Quality Score 30.0/100 with Cash conversion 0/100, Receivables quality 0/100, Margin quality 0/100 and Revenue quality 0/100 (these sub-scores measure realised cash conversion of reported earnings, the quality of receivables, stability/credibility of margins, and revenue sustainability) — collectively indicate weak earnings convertibility to cash and low-quality top-line and margin signals.
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9 (measures nine fundamental health signals; low score signals weak profitability, liquidity, and operating efficiency) — a weak fundamentals profile.
- Altman Z-Score 2.12 (bankruptcy-distance model; 'grey zone') — indicates increased distance-to-failure risk compared with healthy firms though not in the distress zone.
- Accumulated losses = 0.43x paid-in capital (measures retained losses relative to contributed capital) — non-trivial accumulated losses relative to equity base, a balance-sheet concern to monitor.
- Net loss at parent in 1 consecutive year up to FY2025 (a statutory fact) — the parent reported a net loss in the most recent year, which ties to weak profitability indicators above.
- AQI extreme value combined with DSRI and GMI movement (AQI 9.9365, DSRI 1.8359, GMI 2.2368) — together these suggest asset reclassifications and receivables/sales dynamics that warrant scrutiny in the notes.
- Accruals-related measures are not elevated: TATA = -0.0296 (Total Accruals to Total Assets; negative indicates earnings were not driven by positive accrual build-up) and Accruals quality 100.0/100 (measures reliability of accruals) — both suggest reported accruals are not the source of the aggressive M-Score signal.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle are small at 0.3% of total assets (18th percentile among Vietnamese peers) — low balance of prepayments/loans/long-term receivables outside normal trade reduces one common route for earnings misstatement under VAS.
- Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive and statutory loss triggers were not met (Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) as amended) — the published statements do not meet Vietnam's statutory tests for mandatory delisting on loss grounds.
- Contraction in sales (SGI = 0.6035) matched with higher SGAI (1.2035) and no large positive accruals implies deterioration in operating performance rather than aggressive accrual boosting—consistent with real economic weakness in the year rather than purely accounting manipulation.
Ownership is highly concentrated in individuals: four founders/individuals hold a combined majority (Hồ Thái Hòa 20.4%, Nguyễn Văn Tình 17.1%, Nguyễn Thành Công 16.6%, plus Lê Công Xinh 6.0% and Phạm Đình Hồng 5.6%). This concentrated insider ownership can influence accounting and related-party transactions; no director-deal registrations were provided in the data.
- Compare the line items and disclosures in the notes for 'receivables and prepayments' and 'loans receivable' with the balance-sheet totals to confirm the 0.3% of assets classified outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the components of AQI (non-current asset additions, reclassifications or other movements) in the fixed-asset and intangible-asset notes with the AQI value 9.9365 to identify what drove the large asset-quality change.
- Review the revenue recognition note and the schedule of trade receivables aged by period to assess the drivers of DSRI = 1.8359 (i.e., compare revenue growth to receivables growth and ageing).
- Examine the statement of cash flows and the reconciliation of profit to cash from operations to verify the Cash conversion sub-score of 0/100 and the reported TATA = -0.0296 (total accruals effect).
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.42
- P/S
- 0.10
- ROE
- −16.3%
- ROA
- −8.5%
- EPS
- −1.957
- BVPS
- 11.011
- Gross Margin
- 3.0%
- Net Margin
- −4.3%
- D/E
- 0.69
- Current Ratio
- 1.56
- Rev Growth
- −39.6%
- Profit Growth
- −308.5%
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 4.9M
- Charter Capital
- 49.5B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Tài nguyên Cơ bản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Kim loại
- Sub-industry
- Thép và sản phẩm thép
- Company Type
- CT