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Cyclicals sector

LAS

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Supe Phốt phát và Hóa chất Lâm Thao
Hóa chấtCT
17.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
11.771
Current
17.500
Gap
-32.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA176.88B
Fair EV/EBITDA11.4x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
176.88B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
11.4x
-
Net Debt
696.60B
=
Equity Value
11.771
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LAS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

44
Weak
Accrual Quality
31
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
51

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.58
Low Risk
DSRI
0.344
GMI
0.879
AQI
1.409
SGI
1.007
DEPI
1.086
SGAI
1.162
TATA
0.097
LVGI
1.124

The Beneish M-Score of -2.5805 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 51.0 suggests moderate concerns, particularly due to a cash conversion score of 0.0, which raises red flags regarding cash flow management.

Red Flags
  • Cash conversion score of 0.0 indicates severe issues in converting earnings into cash, which is critical for operational sustainability.
  • Earnings quality score of 51.0 shows that while there are strengths, the overall quality of earnings is only moderate, with revenue quality at 46.6 indicating potential revenue recognition issues.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.5805 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0 indicates that the company is effectively managing its receivables, which is a strong point in its earnings quality.
Ownership Risk

The high ownership concentration of 69.8% by Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam may pose risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights, potentially limiting transparency and accountability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow trends and consider the implications of the ownership structure on governance. A cautious approach is recommended until there are clear improvements in cash conversion and overall earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
3.37
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.36
Negative
Composite
32
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-5.8%
Volatility
27.9%
Max Drawdown
-36.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.54P/E
P/B1.28
P/S0.50
ROE11.1%
ROA6.3%
EPS1446.59
BVPS13042.91
Gross Margin16.1%
Net Margin4.4%
D/E0.71
Current Ratio2.01
Rev Growth8.1%
Profit Growth-3.2%
EV/EBITDA12.18
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
112.9M
Charter Capital
1128.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LAS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam
Inst
69.8%
78.8 trieu
Vietnam Investment Limited
Inst
4.1%
3.2 trieu
asia value investment limited
Inst
0.8%
594.368
Công ty Cổ phần Vật tư Kỹ thuật Nông nghiệp Bắc Giang
Inst
0.7%
815.625
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Thọ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Quang Tuyến
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thành Công
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Hồng Thắng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Quốc An
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Văn Khắc Minh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thanh Tùng
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Xuân Hồng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vi Hoàng Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Chí Thức
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Sơn Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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