HC3

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng số 3 Hải Phòng

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

26.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

22.849

Current

26.000

Gap

-12.1%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

93.93%

Kd(1-t)

6.46%

D/(D+E)

6.07%

WACC

11.85%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

26.659

50%DCF Value

19.040

Blended Intrinsic

22.849

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HC3

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

100

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.01

Low Risk

DSRI

0.932

GMI

0.891

AQI

0.484

SGI

0.932

DEPI

0.906

SGAI

1.459

TATA

0.001

LVGI

1.167

HC3 exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -3.01, which is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 49.3 suggests some level of reliability, the extremely low scores in receivables and revenue raise significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.01 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly lower than the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics show 0.0/100 in receivables and revenue, suggesting serious issues with revenue recognition and cash flow management.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.9321 and SGI of 0.9325 indicate that sales and receivables are growing at a manageable rate, which may suggest some operational stability.
High accrual quality score of 99.8/100 indicates that the company's earnings are largely derived from cash flows rather than accounting adjustments.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among a few individuals, with the top five shareholders holding over 72% of the shares. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and cash flow sustainability. Monitoring future earnings reports and any changes in ownership structure will be critical.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

10.33

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.03

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+5.7%

Volatility

22.0%

Max Drawdown

-19.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.26P/E

P/B0.93

P/S7.21

ROE6.3%

ROA5.9%

EPS1923.07

BVPS27375.16

Gross Margin28.4%

Net Margin54.3%

D/E0.07

Current Ratio14.61

Rev Growth-6.7%

Profit Growth9.4%

EV/EBITDA30.11

Div Yield3.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

20.7M

Charter Capital

206.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HC3 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Phạm Kỳ Hưng

Indiv

29.7%

6.1 trieu

Phạm Đức Duy

Indiv

10.4%

2.1 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Thủy

Indiv

8.2%

1.7 trieu

Phạm Thị Kim Thoa

Indiv

7.6%

1.3 trieu

Đào Viết Trúc

Indiv

6.5%

1.0 trieu

Bùi Ngọc Phương

Indiv

3.9%

796.170

Bùi Thị Ngọc Anh

Indiv

2.2%

450.000

Bùi Ngọc Khôi

Indiv

1.5%

313.549

Đào Viết Liễu

Indiv

1.5%

260.477

Đào Thanh Bình

Indiv

0.9%

185.807

Nguyễn Hoàng Rộng

Indiv

0.6%

100.149

Lưu Thị Phương

Indiv

0.6%

93.144

Phạm Thị Kim Hòa

Indiv

0.3%

49.064

Board & Management

Phạm Kỳ Hưng29.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Đức Duy10.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thuý8.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Đào Viết Trúc6.5%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Ngọc Phương3.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đào Viết Liễu1.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hoàng Rộng0.6%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lưu Thị Phương0.6%

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thị Minh Thu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Hồng Vân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Vân Thường

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Top connections

ATS9.7%DHC8.2%LMI8.2%HAR8.2%HAC8.2%L182 links DBD8.2%FTS8.2%TDS8.2%TOS8.2%CCC8.2%DVC8.2%

Computed 12/04/2026