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Cyclicals sector

DHC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Đông Hải Bến Tre
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT
35.450
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
35.730
Current
35.450
Gap
+0.8%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA522.11B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.6x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
522.11B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.6x
-
Net Debt
509.63B
=
Equity Value
35.730
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

84
Good
Accrual Quality
92
Cash Conversion
98
Receivables
89
Margin Stability
91
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.20
Low Risk
DSRI
0.755
GMI
1.304
AQI
0.653
SGI
1.104
DEPI
0.936
SGAI
0.947
TATA
-0.128
LVGI
1.049

DHC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.2032, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly with an EQ Revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • EQ Revenue score of 0.0/100 indicates no quality revenue recognition, raising concerns about revenue sustainability.
  • GMI of 1.3043 suggests a potential decline in gross margin, which could indicate operational inefficiencies.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 75.8/100 reflects overall strong earnings quality, particularly in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
  • DSRI of 0.7554 indicates a favorable trend in inventory management compared to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a diversified mix of institutional and individual shareholders, which may provide stability. However, the largest shareholder holds only 15.1%, indicating potential vulnerability to shareholder activism.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and operational efficiency. Consider a cautious approach, focusing on the company's ability to maintain cash flow and manage receivables effectively.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.58
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.92
Positive
Composite
72
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.7%
Volatility
29.2%
Max Drawdown
-28.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.71P/E
P/B1.55
P/S0.94
ROE18.7%
ROA11.5%
EPS4067.91
BVPS22892.79
Gross Margin16.2%
Net Margin10.8%
D/E0.62
Current Ratio1.87
Rev Growth1.0%
Profit Growth62.3%
EV/EBITDA7.53
Div Yield2.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
96.6M
Charter Capital
965.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Sản xuất giấy
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
KWE Beteiligungen AG
Inst
15.1%
12.1 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Thủy
Indiv
8.0%
7.7 trieu
Helvetische Bank AG
Inst
6.1%
5.9 trieu
Luminous Vietnam and Indochina Growth Fund
Inst
5.0%
1.7 trieu
Trần Minh Hạnh
Indiv
4.9%
2.7 trieu
Lê Quang Hiệp
Indiv
4.6%
3.2 trieu
Võ Trọng Giáp
Indiv
4.5%
779.640
Đoàn Văn Đạo
Indiv
4.1%
702.050
Lương Văn Thành
Indiv
3.8%
3.7 trieu
KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund
Inst
3.6%
2.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI
Inst
2.6%
209.560
Dương Thành Công
Indiv
2.6%
2.5 trieu
Nguyễn Quốc Bình
Indiv
1.7%
1.7 trieu
Lê Bá Hùng
Indiv
1.4%
1.4 trieu
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund
Inst
1.1%
900.595
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
0.8%
142.400
Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Thủy sản Bến Tre
Inst
0.6%
103.400
Turicum Investment Management Ag
Inst
0.5%
444.000
nguyen-thanh-nghia
Indiv
0.4%
434.086
tmam vietnam equity mother fund
Inst
0.4%
252.885
Marco Martinelli
Indiv
0.3%
333.000
Ngô Thị Thu Hòe
Indiv
0.3%
265.460
Thái Việt Hà
Indiv
0.2%
200.000
nguyen-van-ly
Indiv
0.2%
35.260
Công ty TNHH Quản Lý Quỹ Kim Việt Nam
Inst
0.2%
140.300
Kitmc Worldwide China Vietnam Fund
Inst
0.2%
148.015
Nguyễn Quốc Tuấn
Indiv
0.2%
72.501
Nguyễn Trường Thịnh
Indiv
0.1%
120.000
Hồ Thị Song Ngọc
Indiv
0.1%
120.013
Lê Xuân Hoàng
Indiv
0.1%
18.750
Lê Thị Hoàng Huệ
Indiv
0.1%
69.758
Board & Management
Lê Bá Phương10.4%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Quang Hiệp4.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lương Văn Thành3.8%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Nghĩa0.4%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Marco Martinelli0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hồ Thị Song Ngọc0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Hoàng Huệ0.1%
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Đoàn Thị Bích Thúy
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Tố Uyên
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Đoàn Hồng Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Hoàng Phong
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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