TMT

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Ô tô TMT

Ô tô và phụ tùngCT

12.350

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.947

Current

12.350

Gap

-59.9%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Cyclical

Defaulted to cyclical (no specific sector mapping found)

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→80.02B

Fair EV/EBITDA→8.8x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

80.02B

Fair EV/EBITDA

8.8x

Net Debt

517.01B

Equity Value

4.947

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.36

High Risk

DSRI

2.097

GMI

-0.312

AQI

1.115

SGI

0.906

DEPI

1.459

SGAI

0.833

TATA

0.160

LVGI

0.958

TMT exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a high DSRI indicating potential revenue manipulation and a low earnings quality score of 25.9, suggesting significant issues with cash conversion and receivables management. However, the Beneish M-Score of -1.3588 is below the manipulation threshold, indicating that while risks are present, outright manipulation may not be confirmed.

Red Flags

DSRI of 2.0971 indicates that the company's receivables have increased significantly compared to revenue, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
Earnings Quality Score of 25.9/100, particularly low scores in cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables (13.5/100), highlight serious concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

SGI of 0.9057 indicates that sales growth is stable, which may reflect a consistent demand for TMT's products.
Revenue quality score of 100.0/100 suggests that reported revenues are recognized appropriately, which is a positive sign despite other weaknesses.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, with Bùi Văn Hữu holding 33.4%. This concentrated ownership may lead to governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few rather than minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMT's cash flow and receivables management, and consider reducing exposure until there are clear improvements in earnings quality and transparency. Engaging with management regarding these concerns may also be prudent.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.54

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.39

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-6.9%

Volatility

54.5%

Max Drawdown

-45.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.34P/E

P/B2.63

P/S0.22

ROE43.7%

ROA4.2%

EPS1683.58

BVPS4696.62

Gross Margin10.3%

Net Margin3.0%

D/E7.64

Current Ratio1.01

Rev Growth-9.6%

Profit Growth119.3%

EV/EBITDA8.57

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

37.3M

Charter Capital

372.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Ô tô và phụ tùng

Industry (ICB L3)

Ô tô và phụ tùng

Sub-industry

Sản xuất ô tô

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bùi Văn Hữu

Indiv

33.4%

12.3 trieu

Lê Tiến Phan

Indiv

11.7%

4.4 trieu

Bùi Quốc Công

Indiv

10.5%

3.9 trieu

Bùi Thị Huệ

Indiv

10.0%

3.7 trieu

Lê Thị Ngà

Indiv

9.1%

3.4 trieu

Bùi Thị Hồng Nhung

Indiv

7.4%

2.8 trieu

Lê Văn Hồng

Indiv

3.4%

1.0 trieu

Bùi Văn Kiên

Indiv

1.5%

564.525

Bùi Trung Dũng

Indiv

1.3%

501.732

Công ty Cổ Phần Cơ Khí 19-8

Inst

1.2%

375.000

Trịnh Bình Dương

Indiv

0.9%

341.278

Phạm Văn Công

Indiv

0.5%

149.944

Phạm Văn Hồng

Indiv

0.4%

138.216

Lê Văn Phiến

Indiv

0.1%

42.195

Bùi Quốc Hưng

Indiv

0.1%

47.366

Đặng Quang Vinh

Indiv

0.1%

35.625

Board & Management

Bùi Văn Hữu33.4%

Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Quốc Công10.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Thị Huế10.0%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Ngà9.1%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Quốc Hưng0.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thị Hạnh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Quang Huy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đình Phóng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trịnh Thị Hồng Lê

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Văn Hoàng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất

Ngô Văn Hân

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

FUESSV5025.6%PAN12.8%PAI11.8%SSC11.8%DS310.0%DHP10.0%LBE9.3%PHN9.1%LCM7.4%PID6.3%FUESSVFL5.1%DBC5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026