VHC

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Vĩnh Hoàn

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

58.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

High

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

121.976

Current

58.800

Gap

+107.4%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

73.51%

Kd(1-t)

6.90%

D/(D+E)

26.49%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.81%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→1584.57B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

1584.57B

Growth Rate

3.81%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

121.976

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.70

Low Risk

DSRI

0.960

GMI

0.918

AQI

1.224

SGI

0.961

DEPI

0.926

SGAI

0.903

TATA

-0.047

LVGI

0.966

VHC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7037, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 66.3/100, with a notably low receivables score of 32.2/100, suggesting potential issues in revenue collection.
Revenue recognition score of 0.0/100 indicates a complete lack of transparency or reliability in reported revenue figures.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.7037 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.

Ownership Risk

The significant ownership by Trương Thị Lệ Khanh at 42.3% raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder influence. However, the presence of institutional investors like Mitsubishi Australia Ltd (6.5%) provides some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VHC's receivables and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach to investment. Engaging with management on transparency and governance practices is advisable.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

4.77

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.33

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-10.8%

Volatility

36.0%

Max Drawdown

-39.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.90P/E

P/B1.41

P/S1.12

ROE15.0%

ROA10.6%

EPS6072.69

BVPS42573.50

Gross Margin16.5%

Net Margin11.3%

D/E0.34

Current Ratio2.76

Rev Growth-3.9%

Profit Growth11.2%

EV/EBITDA7.13

Div Yield3.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

224.5M

Charter Capital

2244.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Trương Thị Lệ Khanh

Indiv

42.3%

95.0 trieu

Mitsubishi Australia Ltd

Inst

6.5%

6.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ đầu tư Dragon Capital Việt Nam

Inst

5.0%

4.5 trieu

Quỹ Đầu Tư Việt Nam

Inst

5.0%

4.5 trieu

Red River Holding

Inst

4.9%

4.5 trieu

Lâm Quang Thanh

Indiv

4.6%

4.2 trieu

Lâm Mẫu Diệp

Indiv

4.5%

10.0 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

2.3%

4.3 trieu

Võ Phú Đức

Indiv

1.6%

3.5 trieu

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

1.6%

2.9 trieu

Grinling International Limited

Inst

0.8%

720.097

Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited

Inst

0.7%

1.3 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.5%

850.000

Nguyễn Ngô Vi Tâm

Indiv

0.3%

620.037

Hà Thị Phương Thủy Hồng Nhung

Indiv

0.2%

433.970

Nguyễn Thị Kim Đào

Indiv

0.2%

362.287

Trương Tuyết Hoa

Indiv

0.1%

300.016

Hồ Thanh Huệ

Indiv

0.1%

275.344

Phan Thị Bích Liên

Indiv

0.1%

235.611

Board & Management

Trương Thị Lệ Khanh42.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Võ Phú Đức1.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Ngô Vi Tâm0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Hà Thị Phương Thủy Hồng Nhung0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Kim Đào0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc Tài chính

Trương Tuyết Hoa0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Thanh Huệ0.1%

Giám đốc Sản xuất

Huỳnh Đức Trung

Giám đốc điều hành dự án

Nguyễn Quang Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Thị Kiều Oanh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Huỳnh Thị Hồng Diễm

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Khánh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thị Thương

Giám đốc

Jason Koo

Giám đốc Khối Công nghệ thông tin

Lê Ngọc Tiên

Giám đốc khối

Phan Thị Kim Hòa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Vân

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thái Ly

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

LAW42.3%FUEDCMID35.4%PHC21.2%MPC7.1%TVC7.1%V217.0%VFC6.8%PNJ3 links AAV5.6%LIX5.0%FPT4 links VND5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026