VFC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần VINAFCO

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

90.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.234

Current

90.500

Gap

-78.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

67.36%

Kd(1-t)

5.44%

D/(D+E)

32.64%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.30%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

29.007

50%DCF Value

9.462

Blended Intrinsic

19.234

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VFC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.56

Low Risk

DSRI

0.988

GMI

0.890

AQI

0.946

SGI

1.164

DEPI

1.163

SGAI

1.332

TATA

-0.007

LVGI

1.209

VFC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.5639, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal some concerns, particularly in revenue recognition, which could pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 74.5/100, with a concerning eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.5639 suggests a low probability of earnings manipulation, reflecting a potentially more reliable earnings report.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with 51.3% held by Công ty Cổ Phần Logistics Asg and 44.6% by The Shibusawa Warehouse Ltd., may limit shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance and decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VFC's revenue recognition practices and consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks associated with ownership concentration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.78

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.03

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+36.7%

Volatility

88.7%

Max Drawdown

-39.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

126.49P/E

P/B4.04

P/S1.98

ROE3.2%

ROA1.9%

EPS622.96

BVPS19483.60

Gross Margin7.5%

Net Margin1.6%

D/E0.64

Current Ratio2.04

Rev Growth16.4%

Profit Growth-16.3%

EV/EBITDA54.46

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

34.0M

Charter Capital

340.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VFC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Logistics Asg

Inst

51.3%

17.4 trieu

The Shibusawa Warehouse Ltd.

Inst

44.6%

15.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản Lý Quỹ đầu tư Dragon Capital Việt Nam

Inst

6.8%

2.3 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Anh

Indiv

4.5%

1.5 trieu

Lý Như Anh

Indiv

3.3%

1.1 trieu

Trịnh Ngọc Hiến

Indiv

3.1%

1.0 trieu

Lê Thị Mai Linh

Indiv

1.3%

426.307

Phan Xuân Tùng

Indiv

0.7%

244.598

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hà

Indiv

0.2%

55.790

Board & Management

Dương Đức Tặng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Huỳnh Bá Thăng Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Đức Lợi

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Xuân Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Kuniyasu Asahara

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hữu Hiệu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Lương Ngọc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Lan Hương

Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Takashi Kajiwara

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Đình Kiên

Giám đốc

Đặng Lưu Dũng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Minh Phương

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

FUEDCMID35.4%GCB31.5%MPC7.1%PNJ2 links VHC6.8%VND6.8%FPT6.8%SD56.8%TTF6.8%E1VFVN306.8%VMC6.8%GMD6.8%

Computed 12/04/2026