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Consumer sector

MCM

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Giống bò sữa Mộc Châu
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
25.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
2.426
Current
25.700
Gap
-90.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
85.80%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.00%
x
D/(D+E)
14.20%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.19%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF17.10B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
17.10B
Growth Rate
4.19%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
2.426
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MCM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

70
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
67
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
54
Revenue Quality
7

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.14
Moderate
DSRI
0.890
GMI
1.035
AQI
1.991
SGI
0.972
DEPI
0.959
SGAI
0.956
TATA
0.013
LVGI
1.053

MCM's Beneish M-Score of -2.1413 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 69.6/100 reveals potential concerns, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 6.8/100 for revenue indicates significant risk in revenue recognition practices.
  • SGA (Sales, General and Administrative expenses) Index at 0.9556 suggests potential inefficiencies in managing operating expenses.
Positive Signals
  • Strong accrual quality score of 94.8/100 indicates that earnings are largely derived from actual cash flows.
  • The DSRI (Days Sales in Receivables Index) at 0.8899 suggests effective management of receivables, reducing the risk of bad debts.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with Tổng Công ty Chăn nuôi Việt Nam holding 59.3%, may lead to potential governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor MCM's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
6.50
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.73
Negative
Composite
38
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-8.1%
Volatility
14.3%
Max Drawdown
-20.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.82P/E
P/B1.31
P/S1.05
ROE9.4%
ROA8.0%
EPS1961.03
BVPS20721.14
Gross Margin28.1%
Net Margin7.6%
D/E0.18
Current Ratio4.82
Rev Growth-2.7%
Profit Growth-1.9%
EV/EBITDA13.62
Div Yield3.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
110.0M
Charter Capital
1100.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MCM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Chăn nuôi Việt Nam
Inst
59.3%
65.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Sữa Việt Nam
Inst
8.8%
9.7 trieu
Nguyễn Sỹ Quang
Indiv
0.3%
335.300
nguyen-anh-tuan
Indiv
0.3%
292.791
Lê Thị Lệ
Indiv
0.2%
214.080
nguyen-anh-tu
Indiv
0.2%
200.000
Phạm Hải Nam
Indiv
0.1%
130.641
Phạm Quang Thùy
Indiv
0.1%
113.866
Board & Management
Nguyễn Sỹ Quang0.3%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Hải Nam0.1%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Quang Thùy0.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Mạnh Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Mai Kiều Liên
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trịnh Công Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trịnh Quốc Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Huy Bích
Giám đốc Tài chính
Phạm Tuyên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Ngọc Duy
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Trí
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Tuyên Dương
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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