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Construction sector

VMT

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Vận tải Miền Trung
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
16.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
22.839
Current
16.600
Gap
+37.6%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
34.04%
+
Kd(1-t)
3.29%
x
D/(D+E)
65.96%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
-2.549
50%DCF Value
22.839
Blended Intrinsic
22.839
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VMT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

43
Weak
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
13
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.49
Low Risk
DSRI
0.965
GMI
0.913
AQI
0.552
SGI
0.703
DEPI
0.946
SGAI
1.350
TATA
-0.091
LVGI
0.964

VMT exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.4856, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 43.4/100, driven by poor receivables and revenue metrics, raises red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.4856 suggests low risk of manipulation, but an Earnings Quality Score of 43.4/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • Receivables quality at 12.5/100 and revenue quality at 0.0/100 highlight significant concerns about the company's ability to convert sales into cash.
  • SGA (Selling, General and Administrative Expenses) Index at 1.3505 indicates that expenses are growing faster than sales, which could pressure margins.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests strong cash flow generation despite lower earnings quality.
  • DSRI of 0.9654 indicates that the company is managing its inventory effectively relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated among institutional shareholders, with the top four institutions holding a combined 70.2%. This concentration could lead to governance risks if interests diverge from minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VMT's cash flow and earnings quality metrics while considering a cautious approach due to elevated risks. A deeper analysis of operational efficiency and revenue recognition practices is advisable before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.51
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.06
Positive
Composite
35
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-29.0%
Volatility
113.4%
Max Drawdown
-46.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
200.44P/E
P/B1.05
P/S1.48
ROE0.5%
ROA0.2%
EPS97.28
BVPS18545.06
Gross Margin22.7%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E1.75
Current Ratio0.55
Rev Growth-29.7%
Profit Growth369.6%
EV/EBITDA10.49
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
6.1M
Charter Capital
61.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Dịch vụ vận tải
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VMT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Vinafreight
Inst
27.9%
1.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Transimex
Inst
22.5%
1.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Logistics Vinalink
Inst
14.3%
878.400
Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam
Inst
5.0%
304.800
nguyen-bich-lan
Indiv
0.6%
39.000
Đặng Thị Lành
Indiv
0.5%
16.180
Hồ Văn Tú
Indiv
0.3%
8.000
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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