VNL

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Logistics Vinalink

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

19.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

24.829

Current

19.900

Gap

+24.8%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

65.17%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

34.83%

WACC

10.17%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend7.98%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

18.755

50%DCF Value

30.904

Blended Intrinsic

24.829

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.11

Moderate

DSRI

0.988

GMI

1.013

AQI

0.901

SGI

1.213

DEPI

0.913

SGAI

0.909

TATA

0.051

LVGI

1.059

VNL exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.1076, which suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 63.5 indicates potential issues with cash conversion and revenue recognition, warranting caution for investors.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.1076 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality cash conversion score of 42.7/100 suggests significant issues in converting earnings into cash, which may indicate liquidity risks.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.
The SGI of 1.2128 suggests that the company is growing its sales, which could indicate strong market demand.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of institutional and individual shareholders, with the largest holding being 8.8% by Vinafreight. This could lead to potential governance issues and lack of control over decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VNL's cash flow and earnings quality metrics, particularly the low cash conversion rate. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach or wait for improved financial transparency before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.11

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.14

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+13.1%

Volatility

19.5%

Max Drawdown

-17.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.21P/E

P/B0.91

P/S0.21

ROE18.3%

ROA11.8%

EPS4066.34

BVPS23302.67

Gross Margin6.9%

Net Margin4.1%

D/E0.58

Current Ratio2.76

Rev Growth21.3%

Profit Growth26.6%

EV/EBITDA3.33

Div Yield3.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

14.1M

Charter Capital

141.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Vinafreight

Inst

8.8%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Đức Thắng

Indiv

5.0%

712.000

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Toàn Việt

Inst

4.4%

392.160

nguyen-bich-ngoc

Indiv

4.1%

583.980

Vũ Thế Đức

Indiv

3.4%

485.580

Bùi Ngọc Loan

Indiv

1.5%

136.270

trương minh long

Indiv

1.1%

101.100

Trang Anh Xuân

Indiv

0.9%

127.425

Vũ Quốc Bảo

Indiv

0.8%

111.200

Trần Thị Hồng

Indiv

0.8%

71.430

Nguyễn Nam Tiến

Indiv

0.8%

107.140

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Vận tải Miền Trung

Inst

0.7%

65.940

Lê Quốc Hưng

Indiv

0.7%

61.970

Trần Xuân Hồng

Indiv

0.7%

59.340

Trần Thị Bình

Indiv

0.6%

56.040

Trần Chí Sơn

Indiv

0.5%

50.000

Dương Việt Hà

Indiv

0.5%

75.825

Hoàng Thị Duy Thảo

Indiv

0.4%

50.300

Vũ Thị Bình Nguyên

Indiv

0.3%

25.380

Nguyễn Quốc Huy

Indiv

0.2%

32.655

Nguyễn Anh Nam

Indiv

0.2%

30.000

Vũ Thị Việt Hương

Indiv

0.2%

29.670

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

Inst

0.2%

22.500

Dương Trấn An

Indiv

0.1%

19.095

Đinh Quang Ngọc

Indiv

0.1%

11.640

Nguyễn Đỗ Anh Thư

Indiv

0.1%

16.035

Board & Management

Vũ Thế Đức3.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trang Anh Xuân0.9%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Quốc Bảo0.8%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Nam Tiến0.8%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Thị Duy Thảo0.4%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Quốc Huy0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Anh Nam0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Phan Phương Tuyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Ngọc Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Văn Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TOT82.3%VNF2 links TJC2 links CLX2 links VMT2 links VNT4 links SPV22.7%DNM16.1%HTV10.0%DHN9.6%APF6.9%ITD5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026