TJC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ Vận tải và Thương mại

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

18.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.151

Current

18.200

Gap

-71.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

98.60%

Kd(1-t)

6.38%

D/(D+E)

1.40%

WACC

12.12%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

7.040

50%DCF Value

3.261

Blended Intrinsic

5.151

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TJC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.46

Moderate

DSRI

0.970

GMI

0.401

AQI

0.942

SGI

1.164

DEPI

1.054

SGAI

0.702

TATA

0.033

LVGI

0.903

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4555 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 47.6/100, particularly the 0.0/100 in cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 47.6/100, with 0.0/100 in cash conversion indicating potential issues in converting earnings to cash.
SGI of 1.1635 suggests aggressive revenue growth which may not be supported by cash flow, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.4555 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation compared to the threshold.
Strong receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership with Transimex and Vietnam Maritime Corporation holding a combined 91.2% poses risks related to governance and minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer indicators of earnings sustainability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

32.92

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.04

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+10.2%

Volatility

95.2%

Max Drawdown

-42.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

36.31P/E

P/B0.87

P/S40.22

ROE2.4%

ROA2.4%

EPS501.26

BVPS20939.27

Gross Margin49.2%

Net Margin110.8%

D/E0.01

Current Ratio93.02

Rev Growth16.4%

Profit Growth100.1%

EV/EBITDA-148.61

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

8.6M

Charter Capital

86.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TJC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

Inst

57.7%

5.0 trieu

Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam

Inst

33.5%

2.9 trieu

Công ty CP Đầu Tư Toàn Việt

Inst

2.5%

219.680

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB

Inst

2.3%

200.000

Lê Tất Hưng

Indiv

2.0%

176.000

Mai Xuân Ngoạt

Indiv

1.1%

90.480

Phan Duy Vân

Indiv

0.8%

72.120

Lã Đức Trọng

Indiv

0.6%

49.500

Cao Minh Tuấn

Indiv

0.5%

40.000

Đoàn Bá Thước

Indiv

0.4%

33.750

Vũ Tương Lai

Indiv

0.3%

30.000

Đào Xuân Huyên

Indiv

0.3%

22.500

Đỗ Văn Hội

Indiv

0.2%

16.000

Hoàng Xuân Tín

Indiv

0.2%

15.000

Đỗ Ngọc Thao

Indiv

0.2%

14.400

Board & Management

Lê Tất Hưng2.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Phan Duy Vân0.8%

Phó Giám đốc

Vương Ngọc Sơn

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Thanh Nhạn

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Thị Hồng Hạnh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Trọng Tâm

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phạm Thị Anh Thư

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Hồng Quang

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Bảo Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Duy Hiệp

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CCT99.0%PHP92.6%TOT82.3%CCR80.9%QNP75.0%CDN75.0%SGP65.5%VNF61.1%CLX57.7%SPV57.7%VMT57.7%VNT57.7%

Computed 12/04/2026