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Construction sector

VTP

Construction
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bưu chính Viettel
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
99.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
45.864
Current
99.200
Gap
-53.8%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
24.57%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.32%
x
D/(D+E)
75.43%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend7.74%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
70.456
50%DCF Value
21.272
Blended Intrinsic
45.864
Value Decomposition
34%
66%
Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VTP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
19
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.69
Low Risk
DSRI
1.228
GMI
0.889
AQI
0.730
SGI
1.005
DEPI
1.002
SGAI
1.147
TATA
-0.047
LVGI
1.020

VTP exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.685, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 64.0, the low receivables and revenue metrics raise significant red flags.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.685 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show an alarming eq_receivables score of 18.5/100 and eq_revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting issues with revenue recognition and collection.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates that the company is effectively converting its earnings into cash.
  • The DSRI of 1.2276 suggests that inventory levels are being managed relatively well compared to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 60.8% held by Tập đoàn Công nghiệp - Viễn thông Quân đội, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence, particularly on revenue recognition practices, and consider monitoring cash flow closely before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.39
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.95
Negative
Composite
32
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-24.5%
Volatility
45.6%
Max Drawdown
-41.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
30.68P/E
P/B7.03
P/S0.60
ROE24.1%
ROA5.8%
EPS3324.94
BVPS14519.50
Gross Margin5.5%
Net Margin1.9%
D/E3.26
Current Ratio1.09
Rev Growth0.5%
Profit Growth5.7%
EV/EBITDA20.24
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
121.8M
Charter Capital
1217.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Chuyển phát nhanh
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VTP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp - Viễn thông Quân đội
Inst
60.8%
74.1 trieu
Vietnam Holding Ltd
Inst
1.6%
972.789
Công Đoàn Cơ Sở Tổng Công ty Cổ Phần Bưu Chính Viettel
State
1.4%
1.7 trieu
Trần Trung Hưng
Indiv
0.3%
311.593
Chu Kim Thoa
Indiv
0.2%
148.465
Quỹ Đầu tư Lợi Thế Cạnh Tranh Bền Vững SSI
Inst
0.2%
91.000
Lương Ngọc Hải
Indiv
0.1%
114.517
Board & Management
Trần Trung Hưng0.3%
Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Nam
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Duy Tuấn
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Tuyên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hoàng Long
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Thanh Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Thanh Thoảng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Công Phú
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thị Thanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Việt Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thanh Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nghiêm Phương Nhi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Anh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Tuấn Anh
Kế toán trưởng
Đinh Như Tuynh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đắc Luân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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