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Cyclicals sector

DRC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Đà Nẵng
Ô tô và phụ tùngCT
13.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
16.531
Current
13.600
Gap
+21.6%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTCyclical
Defaulted to cyclical (no specific sector mapping found)
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA482.74B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
482.74B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.9x
-
Net Debt
759.84B
=
Equity Value
16.531
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DRC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

62
Fair
Accrual Quality
99
Cash Conversion
91
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
54
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-2.13
Moderate
DSRI
0.909
GMI
1.740
AQI
2.535
SGI
1.082
DEPI
0.988
SGAI
1.076
TATA
-0.131
LVGI
1.053

DRC's Beneish M-Score of -2.1256 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high GMI of 1.7404 and low earnings quality metrics raise concerns about the sustainability of earnings and potential financial misrepresentation.

Red Flags
  • GMI of 1.7404 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is significantly above 1, suggesting deteriorating gross margins.
  • Earnings quality margin score of 36.7/100 is low, indicating potential issues with profit sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • DSRI of 0.9094 suggests that the company is managing its inventory effectively, which is a positive operational signal.
Ownership Risk

The concentration of ownership with Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holding 50.5% may lead to governance risks, as decisions may heavily favor the interests of this major shareholder over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics and consider the implications of high institutional ownership concentration. A cautious approach is advised, focusing on cash flow sustainability and operational efficiency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.20
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-1.31
Negative
Composite
44
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-25.7%
Volatility
21.9%
Max Drawdown
-37.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
19.30P/E
P/B1.21
P/S0.47
ROE6.3%
ROA2.9%
EPS784.84
BVPS12572.51
Gross Margin13.5%
Net Margin2.4%
D/E1.15
Current Ratio1.35
Rev Growth6.6%
Profit Growth-47.7%
EV/EBITDA10.22
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
154.4M
Charter Capital
1544.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Industry (ICB L3)
Ô tô và phụ tùng
Sub-industry
Lốp xe
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DRC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam
Inst
50.5%
78.0 trieu
Vietnam Holding Ltd
Inst
4.9%
759.631
KWE Beteiligungen AG
Inst
4.7%
5.6 trieu
PXP Vietnam Emerging Equity Fund
Inst
4.2%
5.0 trieu
Ftif - Templeton Frontier Markets Fund
Inst
3.7%
3.4 trieu
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft
Inst
3.4%
3.1 trieu
asia value investment limited
Inst
3.3%
3.0 trieu
Phạm Thị Hồng Hội
Indiv
3.1%
4.7 trieu
Norges Bank
Inst
2.5%
2.3 trieu
amersham industries limited
Inst
2.1%
1.9 trieu
VanEck Vietnam ETF
Inst
1.9%
1.8 trieu
Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited
Inst
1.0%
888.393
VOF Investment Limited
Inst
0.7%
632.718
Lê Hoàng Khánh Nhựt
Indiv
0.5%
765.135
KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund
Inst
0.4%
382.597
Đinh Ngọc Đạm
Indiv
0.4%
380.001
DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company
Inst
0.4%
330.612
nguyen-thanh-binh
Indiv
0.3%
331.388
Deutche Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
Inst
0.3%
244.990
PXP Vietnam Smaller Companies Fund Limited
Inst
0.2%
242.000
Nguyễn Mạnh Tuấn
Indiv
0.1%
195.000
Phạm Ngọc Phú
Indiv
0.1%
182.274
Board & Management
Lê Hoàng Khánh Nhựt0.5%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hà Phước Lộc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Vân Hoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Minh Thu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính
Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Hiệu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Phong Thịnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Quỳnh Nga
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Xuân Bắc
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Mỹ Lệ
Kế toán trưởng
Chu Quang Tuấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trương Thị Hồng Hoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Huy Hiếu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Đình Quyền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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