PVT

Construction

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Dầu khí

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

22.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

25.130

Current

22.300

Gap

+12.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

51.63%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

48.37%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.75%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

13.628

50%DCF Value

36.632

Blended Intrinsic

25.130

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.37

Moderate

DSRI

1.019

GMI

1.427

AQI

1.006

SGI

1.368

DEPI

0.929

SGAI

0.788

TATA

-0.105

LVGI

1.017

PVT exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.3737, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, several components such as GMI and SGI suggest potential revenue growth concerns. The earnings quality score of 75.2/100 is relatively strong, but low revenue quality raises caution regarding sustainability.

Red Flags

GMI of 1.4274 indicates a significant increase in gross margin, which may not be sustainable.
SGI of 1.3679 suggests aggressive revenue growth that could be inflated.
EQ Revenue score of 38.2/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 75.2/100 reflects overall strong earnings quality.
Cash conversion and receivables metrics are perfect at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam at 51.0% may lead to potential governance risks, as decisions may favor state interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and consider a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions. Maintaining a cautious approach is advisable given the elevated risk signals.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.71

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.03

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+4.2%

Volatility

36.3%

Max Drawdown

-30.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.07P/E

P/B1.09

P/S0.59

ROE12.7%

ROA4.9%

EPS2209.70

BVPS18459.43

Gross Margin14.6%

Net Margin6.5%

D/E0.94

Current Ratio1.85

Rev Growth36.8%

Profit Growth-5.0%

EV/EBITDA3.80

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

469.9M

Charter Capital

4699.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PVT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập Đoàn Công Nghiệp – Năng Lượng Quốc Gia Việt Nam

Inst

51.0%

239.7 trieu

Vietnam Holding Ltd

Inst

5.0%

14.0 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đại chúng Việt Nam

Inst

5.0%

16.0 trieu

VanEck Vietnam ETF

Inst

4.5%

12.7 trieu

Yurie Vietnam Securities Investment Trust

Inst

3.9%

11.1 trieu

KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund

Inst

3.5%

9.7 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Á Châu

Inst

2.6%

7.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VNDIRECT

Inst

1.4%

3.6 trieu

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

1.1%

3.2 trieu

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

0.7%

1.9 trieu

Kitmc Vietnam Growth Fund

Inst

0.3%

775.000

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam Fund II

Inst

0.2%

629.381

Kitmc Worldwide China Vietnam Fund

Inst

0.2%

500.000

Yurie Vietnam Smart Accumulated Target Return Fund

Inst

0.1%

373.300

Quỹ Đầu tư Lợi Thế Cạnh Tranh Bền Vững SSI

Inst

0.1%

285.840

Board & Management

Phạm Việt Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quốc Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Văn Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Kim Kwang Hyuk

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Linh Giang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Thị Anh Đào

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Mạnh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đình Thanh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đoàn Đình Hiếu

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Đỗ Đức Hùng

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Viết Long

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quốc Thịnh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Khắc Đô

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Duyên Hiếu

Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

GAS95.8%BSR3 links OIL80.5%FUEIP10080.1%POW79.9%DCM75.6%DPM5 links PVX2 links PVS3 links PSI51.2%PVD4 links PSN51.0%

Computed 12/04/2026