X20

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần X20

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

11.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

44.439

Current

11.900

Gap

+273.4%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

43.95%

Kd(1-t)

6.24%

D/(D+E)

56.05%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.49%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→34.77B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

34.77B

Growth Rate

6.49%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

44.439

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — X20

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.77

Elevated

DSRI

1.586

GMI

1.031

AQI

1.135

SGI

0.857

DEPI

1.328

SGAI

1.012

TATA

0.032

LVGI

0.884

X20 exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.773, which is close to the manipulation threshold, indicating potential earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 40.0/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.773 is near the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 40.0/100, with cash conversion at 35.4/100 and receivables at 5.6/100, suggests poor earnings quality and potential liquidity issues.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.5858 indicates a strong inventory management relative to sales, which could be a positive operational signal.
SGI of 0.8569 indicates that sales growth is slowing, which may be a sign of prudent management in a potentially overextended market.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily dominated by Bộ Quốc Phòng at 71.7%, which may lead to a lack of transparency and accountability in management decisions. This concentration of ownership could pose risks related to governance and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor X20's earnings reports and cash flow statements for signs of manipulation. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer indicators of financial stability and governance improvements are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.84

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.67

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-23.2%

Volatility

34.9%

Max Drawdown

-25.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.20P/E

P/B0.74

P/S0.19

ROE12.0%

ROA5.4%

EPS2015.47

BVPS16919.61

Gross Margin17.9%

Net Margin3.1%

D/E1.05

Current Ratio1.38

Rev Growth-14.3%

Profit Growth-23.1%

EV/EBITDA1.39

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

17.3M

Charter Capital

172.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for X20 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bộ Quốc Phòng

State

71.7%

12.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Cái Mép

Inst

2.9%

500.000

Board & Management

Phạm Văn Đông

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Chu Văn Đệ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Phan Vũ Thúy Anh

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thanh Hà

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Hoàng Sỹ Tâm

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Chí Khoa

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Thị Hoa

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phan Thị Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Dương Thị Thu Hòa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Hoàng Văn Linh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Thúy Hằng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Vũ Văn Nhất

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Lan Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

C2271.7%A3271.7%X2671.7%AMP2 links G3671.7%HPO24.4%PTL20.1%LG917.4%THS10.8%UPS6.8%HPH5.9%AFX5.7%

Computed 12/04/2026